This week was defined by US President Donald Trump’s visit to the UK, which saw the agreement of a major new deal on tech investment, while there was a significant new report on how tech could reshape global trade from the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The big picture: AI could lead to a “significant” boost in global trade, according to the latest annual report from the WTO.
The technology could boost visibility within supply chains and cut down on trade frictions, the report argues, translating to a 34-37% increase in trade “across different scenarios” and a 0.68% increase to total factor productivity by 2040. Services will likely be the largest sector for growth, with digitally deliverable services expected to grow 42% in the same period. Global GDP, meanwhile, will enjoy “substantial” growth, and is likely to increase by 12-13%.
There are fears, however, that AI could “exacerbate existing divides and even create new ones” across the world, something which the report says should be addressed through “targeted investment, inclusive policy frameworks and international coordination”.
Global access to the tech could also limit the ability of many countries to exploit its potential for growth, particularly in those nations that do not have access to sufficient digital infrastructure. The report calls for a wide range of measures to democratise access, starting at the level of “international cooperation on AI and trade”. You can read the full report and recommendations here.
Good week/bad week: It was a good week for investment into the UK, as Trump’s state visit heralded major new cash injections into the country’s tech sector from the likes of Microsoft, Nvidia and others. Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer was joined by Trump yesterday to sign off the ‘Tech Prosperity Deal’.
A more challenging week for the UK public finances. The nation’s borrowing for the fiscal year rose to its highest level since the Covid-19 pandemic, with a £72.4bn gap opening up between spending and revenue. The FT reports that the pound has weakened in response to the numbers, published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
How’s stat? €5.8bn – the value of Israeli exports to the EU that are being placed under tariffs as part of the bloc’s package of punitive trade measures relating to Israel’s conduct in its war in Gaza.
The EU imported €15.9bn in goods from Israel in 2024, meaning the measures apply to over a third of annual imports.
Quote of the week: “The agreement will open new markets and create more opportunities for our businesses. It will also help strengthen the supply chains of critical raw materials, essential for Europe’s clean tech and steel industry.”
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on the signing of a new trade deal between the EU and Indonesia.
The week in customs: Netcompany’s UK country manager partner Richard Davies wrote on how a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) for the UK could benefit from the use of a “digital platform at its core”, drawing on experience with the EU CBAM. You can read his full feature for the Daily Update here.
What else we covered this week: The upcoming Liberal Democrat party conference promises more detail on the party’s plans for a closer relationship with Europe, as well as its broader position on trade. Our member-exclusive preview piece this week looked at what the party’s trade spokesperson has indicated so far this year on those topics.
Members can also enjoy a rundown of the most important themes from this week’s London Shipping Week event, including the latest for decarbonisation in shipping and supply chain concerns.
Our latest Trade Explained feature examined the last of the government’s industrial strategies, which sets out plans for the country’s defence sector, and how it could affect UK exporters.
True facts: On this day in 1893, New Zealand became the first country to grant all women the right to vote.
Women were first granted the vote in the UK in 1918, although not on equal terms with men until 1928.
