Week commencing 28 July
31 July, 11.40pm:Countries yet to strike a trade deal with the US are rushing to do so ahead of a deadline tomorrow (1 August), with India in particular facing a bumper tariff rate that could have major implications for its economy.
In a post on his Truth Social platform earlier this week, Trump remarked that the US has a “massive trade deficit” with India, and announced that the country would face a 25% tariff rate from tomorrow’s deadline.
He wrote that, “while India is our friend”, the country’s tariffs are “far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country”.
He also said that India is “Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE”.
Trump has exchanged barbs with former Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, in recent days. This latest comment comes as Trump mulls ‘secondary’ tariffs on countries purchasing large volumes of Russian oil – a central plank in Russia’s funding of its war in Ukraine.
The US president set a 10-day deadline for Russia to agree a ceasefire in the war on Tuesday.
After Medvedev said in a Telegram post that “each new ultimatum” from the US on Ukraine “is a threat and step toward war”, Trump responded that “we have done very little business with India” and “likewise, Russia” – and that the US should “keep it that way”.
Copper climbdown
There was also a major development from the US administration on copper, as it announced that, while copper pipes and wiring will face a 50% tariff, input materials including ores and concentrates will not be affected by the duty increase.
The Guardian reports that the announcement saw a 17% fall in the price of copper on the Comex exchange.
Tom Price, analyst at London firm Panmure Liberum, told the publication that markets are repricing copper after the climbdown, and suggested that “someone must have finally got through to [Trump] that the US economy simply can’t afford this new trade-hit”.
The 50% duty rate on pipes and wiring has been welcomed by one US mining magnate, however.
As reported by the BBC, Ivanhoe Mines founder Robert Friedland said that the US administration is “correctly focused on making sure that the world's largest economy actually has stable access to raw materials at the scale of that economy, rather than being dependent on far-flung and potentially unstable jurisdictions”.
South Korea deal
The US has agreed a tariff deal with South Korea ahead of the 1 August deadline, Trump also announced on Truth Social.
As also reported by Reuters, the deal will set the US tariff rate on South Korean goods at 15%. The agreement also includes a promise from South Korea to purchase US$100bn in US liquefied natural gas “or other Energy products and, further, South Korea has agreed to invest a large sum of money for their Investment purposes”, Trump said.
Former South Korean trade minister Cheong In-Kyo said "we avoided the worst and chose the next best”, but suggested the devil will be in the details regarding the proposed US investment.
Elsewhere, Trump has suggested that Canada “backing statehood for Palestine”, as Canadian prime minister Mark Carney said it would do yesterday, will “make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them”.
30 July, 10.30pm: The US and China appear primed to extend their 90-day tariff truce, following talks in Stockholm that both sides described as “constructive”.
US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said that president Donald Trump needs to review the terms he and his Chinese counterparts discussed before the détente can continue.
“The meetings were constructive”, he said, “we just haven’t been given the sign off yet”.
Yesterday (29 July), Trump was returning from meetings with European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, and UK prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, at properties Trump owns in Scotland.
According to the FT, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One:
“They are going to brief me tomorrow. We’ll either approve it or not. But he felt very good about the meeting. Better than he felt yesterday.
“Yesterday I said, ‘Ooh, here we go again, here we go again’. But today it worked out very well. I think the result is probably pretty good.”
A truce would sustain the reduction in tariffs agreed in May in Geneva. That agreement saw duties fall by 115% for both nations, after a tit-for-tat trade war led to rates reaching 145% on Chinese goods and 125% for US goods.
US officials warned that without securing an extension of that truce rates could “boomerang” back up come the 12 August deadline.
Chinese negotiators were also positive about the meeting. Commerce minister, Li Chenggang, described talks as “candid and constructive”, and said he would “continue to promote the extension” of the tariff truce.
He added that both parties are “fully aware of the importance of safeguarding a stable and sound China-US trade and economic relationship".
The two sides also discussed rare earths, a recurring sticking point given China’s domination of supply and necessity of the goods in the manufacture high-tech products such as car batteries.
The US’ stance towards China has softened ahead of these talks, with the administration pausing any new export controls on tech to China, and also permitting the export of advanced Nvidia semiconductor chips, according to CEO Jensen Huang.
On Monday, it was also reported that Taiwanese president, Lai Ching-te, was blocked from visiting New York en route to Central America, on the orders of the White House after China raised objections.
India impasse
Trump suggested that India could be set to face 25% tariffs on its US exports from 1 August, as negotiations between the two nations still haven't concluded in a deal.
Asked about the likelihood of a deal, Trump told reporters yesterday:
"We're going to see. India has been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country.
"But now I'm in charge, and you just can't do that."
India is known for being fiercely protectionist, with the UK granting concessions on worker visas and social security payments to get a deal over the line earlier this year after several years of negotiation.
Agriculture and dairy remains a significant sticking point for the US, with Trump keen to open India's market to American farmers. However, Indian commerce minister Piyush Goyal has said he will continue to ensure Indian farmers are "well protected", telling CNBC last week:
"We are always very sensitive to the interests of our farmers, the interests of our [Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises], and will ensure that our areas of concern are well protected."
29 July, 11pm: The US and China are once again in talks over tariffs today (29 July), as delegations from both nations meet in Stockholm.
US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, met with his Chinese counterpart yesterday (28 July), with discussions set to continue today on extending the current tariff truce between the countries by three months – as well as other longer-standing issues.
President Donald Trump said in remarks to reporters in the UK yesterday that he would “love to see China open up their country” more to US trade.
US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, who is also in attendance at the talks, said to CNBC that he was not expecting “some kind of enormous breakthrough today", suggesting that focus remains on ensuring continuity in the supply of critical minerals:
"What I expect is continued monitoring and checking in on the implementation of our agreement thus far, making sure that key critical minerals are flowing between the parties and setting the groundwork for enhanced trade and balanced trade going forward.”
EU will pay
The reaction to yesterday's announcement of the US-EU tariff deal has continued, with German chancellor Friedrich Merz saying that his country’s economy “will suffer considerable damage” as a result of the 15% tariff settled on in the agreement.
He also added that he thought the damage “won’t be limited to Germany and Europe alone”.
“We will also see the consequences of this trade policy in America – not only will there be a higher inflation rate, but it will also affect transatlantic trade overall.”
He did, however, admit that the 15% rate is the “best result achievable in a given situation”, according to the FT. Wolfgang Niedermark, a board member at major German industry trade organisation BDI, also told the publication that the European Commission “simply did not have a good negotiating position”.
In future rounds of negotiation with the US, the EU needed to ensure it was “stronger”, Niedermark said.
This remark was echoed by former French prime minister and EU Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, who wrote on X that the deal was an “admission of weakness” that was not inevitable but a “result of poor choices”.
Korea choices
The next country in line for a tariff deal could be another of the US’ biggest trading partners: South Korea.
The country’s finance minister, Koo Yun-cheol, is to meet Bessent for discussions over a deal this week in Washington DC. These talks are likely to include South Korean proposals for closer cooperation on shipbuilding in particular, Reuters reports.
US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, suggested that the South Korean delegation that met him this week in Scotland “really, really want to get a deal done” ahead of a 1 August deadline, after which US tariffs on South Korean goods are set to hit 25%.
Week commencing 21 July
11am, 25 July: The EU has published the details of the planned counter-tariffs on US goods if a trade deal is not reached. The total amount of goods targeted reaches €93bn, according to Le Monde.
Tariffs of up to 30% are planned for a host of different products. Meat, machinery and vehicles will receive tariffs of between 25-30%, depending on the exact commodity code used.
The rules will come into effect on 7 August, if an agreement is not reached. EU diplomats have previously stressed that negotiations will continue until the last possible moment.
As reported yesterday (24 July) by the Daily Update, a deal between the two sides is said to be close. However, reporting from the Guardian suggests that the EU has failed to reduce the 50% tariff on steel.
Elsewhere, Australia has lifted restrictions on US beef and meat products.
“For decades, Australia imposed unjustified barriers on US beef, effectively barring US market access,” said US trade representative Jamieson Greer in an emailed statement.
“Yesterday’s decision by Australia marks a major milestone in lowering trade barriers and securing market access for US farmers and ranchers.”
Australian authorities had previously banned the import of US beef goods over fears around biosecurity and health. However, the government said that it had revised the rule to allow meat imports from the US.
"The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry is satisfied the strengthened control measures put in place by the US effectively manage biosecurity risks," Australian agriculture minister, Julie Collins, told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
Australian opposition figures questioned whether this was a rushed move to appease Trump, however Red Meat Advisory Council chair, John McKillop, said that the timing was “quicker than expected” but had been in the pipeline for several years.
11am, 24 July: The US and EU are poised to agree a tariff trade deal that would mirror the one struck earlier this week by Japan.
A 15% tariff rate appears to be settled on by negotiators, according to reporting by the Guardian. It would be half the rate that was planned for the 1 August implementation date, which would have seen 30% duties levied on all EU goods. The European Commission delivered news of the proposed deal to EU member states yesterday.
In return for the reduced rate, the EU has agreed to cut the most-favoured nation (MFN) duty rate to zero for some US products entering the bloc. This concession did not secure a long-term commitment to the 10% ‘baseline’ rate the bloc’s exports to the US currently face, however.
You can read more here.
10.30am, 23 July: The US has agreed a deal to reduce tariffs with Japan, president Donald Trump has announced.
Writing on his Truth Social platform, Trump said that the “massive” deal will reduce the US tariff rate on Japanese goods to 15% ahead of a deadline on 1 August that would have seen the rate hit 25%.
As we noted in our tariff live update story, the turbulence around the rate has already impacted bilateral trade between the two countries, with two consecutive year-on-year drops of 11% in Japanese exports to the US in May and June.
You can read more here.
11am, 21 July: Japan’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has said that he will continue to lead the country, including tariff negotiations with the US, following a disappointing election result.
Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in both houses for the first time, falling two seats short of a majority in the 248-seat upper house after voting took place on Sunday (20 July).
Japan is set to face 25% tariff rates from 1 August. Its US exports have already fallen dramatically, with two consecutive drops of 11% year-on-year reported for May and June.
Its auto sector has been particularly hit hard by US tariffs of 25%, making a Japanese exemption a negotiating priority. Japanese car exports were down 26.7% in June, compared to 2024 figures. Cars make up 28% of the country's exports to the US.
Ishiba said he would “personally like to speak directly with president Trump as soon as possible to achieve tangible results”.
His chief negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is set to visit Washington this week for further talks.
It’s not just Japanese car manufacturers feeling the tariff heat. Stellantis, owner of both Jeep and Fiat, reported that Trump’s tariffs would cost the company US$300m.
The FT reports that amid additional challenges – such as poor performance in 2024, weak demand from Europe and political tensions in its historic bases of France and Italy – Stellantis is set for a $2.3bn loss in the first half of the year, compared to a $5.6bn profit during the same period the previous year.
Europe is also feeling the pressure ahead of the 1 August deadline, after which the US will apply 30% tariff to the bloc’s exports.
Bloomberg reports that the EU is increasing its no-deal preparations, with EU envoys set to meet this week to discuss possible retaliatory action.
Brussel’s position has weakened in recent weeks, with division among members over retaliation increasing as Trump has taken a stronger stance on several tariffs demands.
During last week’s negotiations the US president pushed for a 15-20% baseline rate, when the EU had been pursuing the 10% rate secured by the UK. He also rebuffed EU proposals to reduce tariffs on US autos exports in exchange for lowered rates on EU cars, pressing to keep the 25% sector tariff in place.
Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said on Friday (18 July):
“Whether we can still create sectoral rules, whether we can treat individual sectors differently from others, is an open question. The European side supports this. The American side views it more critically.”
Week commencing 14 July
11:00am, 18 July: US president Donald Trump has said he will send a single letter to 150 countries, telling them the tariff rate they will face.
“It’s all going to be the same for everyone, for that group,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
“They’re not big countries, and they don’t do that much business. Not like the ones we’ve agreed with, like China, like Japan.”
The rate for these nations has not yet been confirmed, with the president previously hinting that it may rise above the ‘baseline’ rate of 10%.
Some key trading partners have yet to agree deals, including India, Switzerland and Taiwan. Reports suggest that a deal with India is forthcoming, but nothing has officially been released.
The FT reports that the EU has offered a ‘tit-for-tat’ deal, where both Europe and the US would reduce the tariffs on car exports.
Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum have discussed the need to reinforce friendship between their countries.
Carney’s office confirmed that the two had spoken on the phone about strengthening their joint economies, while Sheinbaum said that they were going to “further strengthen the friendship between our two countries, including [at] the 2026 Fifa World Cup”.
The 2026 World Cup tournament will be held at locations across Mexico, the US and Canada.
11:00am, 16 July: US president Donald Trump has said he will “refine” the UK-US deal with British prime minister Sir Keir Starmer, ahead of his visit to the UK later this month.
He told reporters they would meet in Aberdeen, where Trump owns a golf resort:
“We’re going to also refine the trade deal that we’ve made. So we’ll be meeting mostly […] at probably one of my properties, or maybe not, depending on what happens, but we’ll be in Aberdeen, in Scotland, meeting with the prime minister.”
As it currently stands, the US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal limits tariffs on UK exports to the 10% baseline rate, while also cutting sector-specific rates on cars and aerospace parts to 10%.
Steel could be up for discussion later this month. The UK negotiated a 25% tariff rate for the EPD, which is lower than the global rate of 50%, but it still hopes to reduce this to zero to protect the industry.
The pharmaceutical sector, which was also confirmed as open for further negotiation in June, could also be subject to tariffs beginning 1 August.
After threatening global tariffs on the industry of up to 200% last week, following an 18-month grace period for manufacturers to shift production, Trump said yesterday that the first pharmaceutical tariffs could be imposed at the start of next month, along with hiked rates on semiconductors. Both industries were subject to an investigation under Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansions Act.
What impact are the already-introduced tariffs having on the US economy? Data released yesterday confirmed a substantial boost to US customs revenue in Q2 2025. Last quarter, the US received $64bn in customs duties, over $47bn more than the same period in 2024. However, tariffs appear to finally be hitting US inflation, with June's rate hitting 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May.
Finally, a third US trade deal has been confirmed. In addition to the UK and Vietnam, Indonesia has now made a pact with the US to cut its reciprocal tariff rate from 32% to 19%.
The US will be able to export goods to Indonesia tariff-free, with Trump saying the deal will give US “full access to Indonesia, everything”. According to a social media post shared by Trump, Indonesia has also agreed to buy 50 Boeing jets, US$15bn worth of energy exports and $4.5bn of agricultural goods.
10.45am, 14 July: The EU is postponing the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on the US, in the hope of securing a deal before new US tariffs due to come into force from 1 August.
The EU has delayed its plan to hit €21bn of US goods with its own duties until August, with European Commission (EC) president Ursula von der Leyen saying:
“We have always been clear that we prefer a negotiated solution with the US. This remains the case”.
She added that the EU would “continue working towards an agreement by 1 August”.
EU trade ministers met today for a pre-arranged summit to decide what steps to take next. The retaliatory measures are now set to come into effect on 6 August.
Over the weekend (12 July), US president Donald Trump’s announced new 30% tariffs on the EU, delivered in another letter posted to his Truth Social platform. In the letter, he described the US-EU trade relationship as “far from reciprocal” and cast doubt on further opportunities for Brussels to negotiate:
“We have had years to discuss our trading relationship with the EU, and have concluded that we must move away from these long-term-large, and persistent, trade deficits, engendered by your tariff, and non-tariff, policies and trade barriers”.
Mexico, another major US trading partner, was also hit with 30% tariffs. In the letter to Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump reiterated complaints made earlier this year that its actions to secure the border from drug trafficking and migrant crossings were “not enough”.
Currently, Mexican exports to the US are subject to a 25% tariff, if not covered by the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement. Trump’s letter didn’t specify whether the USMCA exemption would apply when the 30% tariff rates takes effect.
Like the EU leadership, Sheinbaum remained confident that a deal could be reached by the August implementation date.
“We believe, based on what our colleagues discussed yesterday, that we will reach an agreement with the US and that we will, of course, achieve better conditions”, she said on Saturday (12 July).
In letters to both trading partners, Trump warned that any retaliation would lead to a proportional increase in tariffs imposed by the US, above the existing 30%.
Week commencing 7 July
11am, 11 July: US president Donald Trump has suggested yet another escalation in his ongoing tariff policy, hiking up the ‘baseline’ rate applicable to most countries, while threatening Canada with even higher tariffs.
In a letter published on social media, Trump said that on 1 August a baseline 35% rate applied to Canadian imports into the US. This was separate from the sectoral rates, which climb as high as 50% for certain commodities like copper and steel.
Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, said that his government had “steadfastly defended our workers and businesses” throughout the negotiations and would continue to do so towards the August deadline.
“We are poised to build a series of major new projects in the national interest. We are strengthening our trading partnerships throughout the world,” he added.
Trump also hinted that he was considering a new baseline rate for other nations, higher than the current 10%.
“We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20 per cent or 15 per cent. We’ll work that out now,” Trump told NBC News.
US stocks slumped on the news, even as the dollar rose against major peers in early Asian trading.
More letters to countries detailing their new tariff rates are expected to arrive soon, with the EU said to be awaiting their letter’s arrival today.
The Guardian reports that EU trade ministers are expected to meet on Monday and agree to an extension of the 90-day ‘pause’ on European retaliation, if a deal is announced over the weekend.
10:50am, 10 July: Trump has announced a 50% tariff rate on Brazilian exports – separate to other sector-specific duties – based on its treatment of Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro.
In the letter written to Brazil announcing its new tariff rate, Trump described the ex-president’s trial as a “witch hunt”.
Bolsonaro is accused of conspiring to stay in power after losing the 2022 election to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, including allegations that he conspired in an illegal coup after his supporters stormed Brazil’s congress and other government buildings.
Trump also accused Brazil of “insidious attacks on Free Elections” and curtailing American’s right to free speech, claiming that the Brazilian Supreme Court had issued “SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders” on several US social media platforms.
The new rate is set to come into effect on 1 August, along with reinstated reciprocal tariff rates on a number of trading partners, following a 90-day suspension for them to negotiate a deal.
Brazil’s currency, the Brazilian Real, fell 2.3% against the dollar following the announcement.
President Lula said that Brazil would retaliate, and condemned Trump’s criticisms of its highest court:
“Any unilateral tariff increase will be met under the Brazilian Economic Reciprocity Act.
“Brazil is a sovereign country with independent institutions that will not accept anyone’s control”.
Lula’s vice president, Geraldo Alckmin, also said there was no economic rationale for US tariffs on Brazilian goods:
“I see no reason to increase tariffs on Brazil. The US does have a trade deficit, but it has a surplus with Brazil”.
This is supported by US Trade Representative data, which showed a US$7.4bn trade surplus in 2024, representing “a 31.9% increase ($1.8bn) over 2023”.
Brazil in one of the first eight countries to receive a letter informing it of new tariff rates coming into effect 1 August. Trump shared letters sent to seven other countries: Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Sri Lanka, announcing new rates of between 25 and 30%.
10.15am, 9 July: The latest good to fall under a tariff shadow today is copper, after Trump threatened additional duties of 50% on the metal.
In remark to journalists reported by the BBC, Trump said that "today, we're doing copper. We're going to make it 50%.”
US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, said in an interview with CNBC that the new rate will be formalised in the next few days, with the aim of implementing the new tariff before the end of the month. It follows the conclusion of a US government investigation into the US’ imports of copper.
Lutnick added:
“The idea is to bring copper home, bring copper production home, bring the ability to make copper, which is key to the industrial sector, back home to America. That will come out, but then copper will be set, likely to be put into place the end of July, maybe 1 August.”
The price of the commodity, which is used in a wide array of electrical goods, surged by more than 13% in the US on the back of the news.
Elsewhere, the Trump administration appears poised to conclude a tariff deal with the EU after he called Brussel's most recent approach on tariffs “very nice” in discussion with reporters yesterday. Then, he said that the US is likely “two days off” sending a letter setting out a new tariff rate.
Politico reports that the deal is likely to keep a baseline 10% tariff in place, as the recent US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal did, but without specific measures providing further relief on industries like automobiles, which the UK managed to secure.
10:30am, 8 July: Trump has confirmed a delay to the implementation of higher tariff rates on US trade partners, which his administration now says will enter force from 1 August.
This announcement comes alongside new 25% levies on goods coming from South Korea and Japan, as well as a 30% tariff on goods from South Africa and fresh rates on a host of other nations, including Kazakhstan and Malaysia.
In letters that he shared on his Truth Social platform, Trump told the addressed countries:
“If for any reason you decide to raise your tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 30% that we charge.”
The 90-day pause on higher ‘Liberation Day’ tariff rates was due to end this week, but has been extended. It could be pushed back even further, Trump has suggested in remarks reported by the BBC:
“I would say [the deadline is] firm, but not 100% firm. If they call up and they say we'd like to do something a different way, we're going to be open to that.”
Adam Ahmad Samdin, economist at Oxford Economics, told the BBC that deals between the US and other countries on trade are likely to be “extremely detailed”, and it’s thus not a surprise that the Americans are hesitating to bring down the hammer.
Perhaps significantly, the EU has not received a letter outlining a new, higher tariff rate. Yesterday, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said that she had enjoyed a “good exchange” with Trump. The relationship could run into trouble, however, over the EU’s €500m fine on US tech firm Apple over practices relating to its iPhone app store. Trump has already voiced concerns over other countries’ approach to US ‘Big Tech’ firms, and his anger at Canada’s proposed digital services tax prompted the country to scrap it late last month.
11.30am, 7 July: The US tariff deadline appears to have been moved to 1 August after a series of comments from both US president Donald Trump and senior White House officials.
On social media, Trump said that ‘tariff letters’ will be “ delivered starting 12:00 P.M. (Eastern), Monday, July 7th." The contents of these letters is unknown, but they could include the terms of any additional rates.
However, at a press conference held yesterday (6 July), Trump was unclear on when the tariffs would actually go into effect.
When asked by a journalist if rates would change on Wednesday (9 July), Trump responded by saying:
“They’re going to be tariffs. The tariffs are going to be the tariffs. I think we’ll have most countries done by July 9, either a letter or a deal.”
US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, clarified at the same conference: “Tariffs go into effect 1 August , but the president is setting the rates and the deals right now.”
The original deadline for tariffs coming into effect was Wednesday. However, Trump and Lutnick appear to have extended this.
A statement from the Japanese foreign ministry confirmed that Japanese economic minister, Akazawa Ryosei, has held two lengthy telephone meetings with Lutnick on the subject of tariffs last week.
In another tariff-related announcement, Trump said that he would hit any nation that sided with the BRICS alliance with an additional 10%.
The president said on social media:
“Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
The BRICS group includes Russia, China and India. Last year, it expanded membership to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
