China’s trade appears to be contracting as a result of US tariffs, according to new numbers out today. The news rounds off a week where those tariffs have looked more vulnerable as the US Supreme Court deliberates on their legality, while the UK grappled with demands from pharmaceutical firms and the chancellor hinted at the challenging choices facing her in her upcoming budget.
The big picture: China’s exports fell for the first time since the US’ ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs this month, according to a report on Chinese customs data in the FT.
Exports took a 1.1% hit in October compared with the same month last year, an unexpected contraction after a Reuters poll of analysts suggested an expected increase of 3%. China’s exports also grew by 8.3% in September, possibly as a result of frontloading shipments.
Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, told the FT that “exports are the biggest surprise this year, so far [it] has been very strong”, adding that “my base case is it’s going to remain very strong in the next 6-12 months”.
Today's news also includes reports that the EU is demanding payment from the UK in return for easier movement of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) goods between the country and the bloc. One diplomat speaking anonymously said:
“Third countries that want access to the EU internal market pay. You can’t have the benefits of membership when you are not a member.”
Good week/bad week: A somewhat promising week for those hoping to see those US tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, which heard opening arguments on their legality and indicated it could choose to circumscribe presidential authority such that president Donald Trump is unable to unilaterally impose the measures.
Less positive news for those hoping to see the strongest possible action from the EU on emissions, as it chose to lighten the legal load on member nations around reducing them in a decision on Wednesday. The bloc is also set to loosen new requirements under its AI act after pressure from large US tech firms, according to reports out today.
How’s stat: 25% - that’s the increase the UK government is willing to concede on payments to US pharmaceutical firms for drugs purchased by the NHS. It comes as several major US companies in the sector are minded to cut their business in the UK, according to US ambassador Warren Stephens.
Quote of the week: "When I look into my own crystal ball, I have visions of rapidly increasing levels of SMEs exporting, driven by access to finance reforms and improved gender equality in trade. I have visions of a fully-functioning single trade window, of businesses utilising trade agreements all over the world, of a more harmonised world trade system.
"These are not just visions for me and my team. These are measures which we work every day to turn into reality."
Chartered Institute director general Marco Forgione, marking this year's International Trade Week.
The week in customs: We looked at how the new Approved Customs Practitioner professional standard will help the intermediary industry by giving experts in the sector a portable way to signal their competence.
Our latest free public webinar examined returned goods relief and temporary admission on Wednesday, and a recording is available on our website.
What else we covered this week: Rachel Reeves is said to be considering a manifesto-breaking 2% increase to the base rate of income tax, and the chancellor did not rule out the change at a pre-Budget ‘scene setter’ speech on Tuesday.
MP and chair of the Parliamentary Business and Trade Committee Liam Byrne wrote for the Daily Update on how the government plans to boost UK trade with new trade deals, ‘economic security’ and “processes that actually systematically take down the trade barriers, the paperwork, the regulation and red tape that actually cost business a fortune when they try and sell abroad”.
Our member-exclusive round-up of trade news from across the UK’s nations and regions included a look at fresh energy support for Great British firms and the upcoming Chartered Institute Scotland Member Forum, taking place online on Tuesday – and which you can sign up for at this link.
True facts: Roads leading to Rome in the time of the city’s empire were apparently 50% longer than previously thought, according to new research published in Nature.
A “massive game of connecting the dots on a continental scale” revealed, according to co-author Tom Brughmans, that the total road coverage in the empire was almost 186,000 miles, after its roads were previously thought to cover 117,163.
Roads remain crucial to Europe’s trade, with EU statistics finding that road freight in the bloc hit 13.1bn tonnes in 2024, or 1,867bn tonne-kilometres.
