AI might be reshaping global trade and India has been receiving warm words on rare earths from China. Elsewhere, discussions over a Ukraine peace deal continue, as Europe’s goods export surplus plummeted by over half in a year.
AI changing trade?
AI may already be changing how trade is being done at a global scale, Reuters analysts suggest today
Among the changes happening in global trade is a “fundamental shift from reactive classification to proactive learning”, where AI systems “analyse patterns, recognise relationships” and incorporate historical classification decisions to ensure future accuracy.
Those looking to get to grips with how AI is changing trade can do so at upcoming Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade webinars.
On 30 September, a free public webinar will look at how the UK government’s new Trade Strategy will lay the groundwork for an expansion of AI in trade.
The following week, on 7 October, our free ‘Beyond the border’ session will look at how AI is reshaping supply chains at the global level, with implications for everything from logistics to cybersecurity. You can sign up for that one here.
There is also a dedicated public webinar on classification in partnership with TariffTel, which takes place at 1pm on 21 October.
European trade surplus slashed
The eurozone’s trade surplus in goods plummeted in June to less than half the figure posted in the same month of 2024.
European Commission numbers published yesterday found a €7bn surplus in goods trade with the world in June, falling far short of the €20.7bn recorded last year.
Members can read more about this trade shift, including expert analysis, in today's European Trade Digest.
Ukraine discussion
There were further developments in efforts to secure a Ukraine peace deal, after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky visited the White House flanked by the leaders of the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Finland yesterday (18 August).
US president Donald Trump wrote after the visit that he has begun “the arrangements for a meeting, at a location to be determined, between President [Vladimir] Putin and President Zelensky”, which he expects to be followed by a trilateral meeting between the two presidents and himself.
The US president’s posts in the wake of the meeting did not put forward proposals for additional sanctions on Russia. Daniela Turiccki, academy director at the Chartered Institute, said that the progress on peace was “encouraging” but that questions remain on “how this may affect export controls and scrutiny on sanctions and dual use goods moving forward”.
“It has been highlighted that there may be further sanctions imposed on Russia, reducing their capability to trade internationally, while also noting that Ukraine is likely to continue receiving military aid to secure the country, which in turn could create further friction.”
China-India
The recent trend in positive news for the China-India relationship continues today, as Reuters reports that China has pledged to boost India’s access to rare earths.
Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, is in India to meet prime minister Narendra Modi this week ahead of Modi’s planned trip to China for a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. According to reports, Wang has promised increased access to Chinese rare earths and fertilisers.
Ajit Doval, an Indian national security adviser, hailed an “upward trend” in Sino-Indian relations after a border dispute flared into clashes in 2020. This, Wang said, had not been in the interests of the two nations.
What else is happening in trade
· New border checks for UK live animal imports from the EU previously scheduled to enter force have been suspended – we have a full write-up here
· Electronics supply chains have shifted since Trump’s imposition of new tariffs, with component imports to China taking a dive as Vietnam benefits, according to Counterpoint research
· UK growth prior to last year’s general election was higher than previously thought, according to revised Office for National Statistics numbers. Economist Paul Dales told the FT that the change “still leaves the [post-pandemic] recovery in the UK more muted than in the US and the Eurozone”
Yesterday in trade
· New UK rules of origin guidance for trade with developing countries
· A new UK commissioner for trade with Europe
· A drop in UK consumer confidence
· Read the full story here
