Historians will undoubtedly look back on 2025 as a tumultuous year for global trade, with US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ just one of many era defining moments.
At our recent Import Export Show, we conducted a ‘word cloud’ poll asking delegates what they thought was the biggest threat to trade. Their answers were not surprising: ‘tariffs’, ‘Trump’, ‘geopolitics’, ‘uncertainty’ and ‘constant change’ all came up. The only thing we can now be certain of, as we head into 2026, is that the global economic picture will remain unpredictable.
This is not a particularly new situation. Uncertainty has become the ‘new norm’ since the 2008 crash. Next year will also mark a decade having passed since the UK’s referendum on membership of the EU. Since then, British and European businesses have had to grapple with almost constant uncertainty and change.
Despite the challenges that tariffs and changing regulations pose, trade remains the only credible route growth and security for businesses and the UK economy. Research shows that businesses that trade internationally are more sustainable, more resilient, employ more people, are more innovative and more profitable. Yet, despite this, cross-border trade is often viewed by many firms, particularly MSMEs (Micro, Small, Medium Enterprises), as being too risky and onerous.
This is a view that needs to be tackled head on. First, remaining reliant on just one market is itself a risk. Doing business in multiple countries ensures you are not as exposed if there is a downturn in the domestic economy. Secondly, the administrative challenges posed by trade can be overcome. There is an abundance of support from the government and organisations like the Chartered Institute to help businesses navigate trade rules and processes. Third there is great deal of untapped demand for UK goods and services. We need to encourage more MSMEs to make the most of this.
The UK needs to boost its exports if it is to grow. We were glad to see the government publish its new long-term Trade and Industrial Strategies this year, and we also welcomed the new trade deal with India. The UK-EU Leaders’ Summit in May was another important moment, while the government’s pragmatic approach to trade relations with the US is understandable. However, the government will know that there’s a lot to be done in 2026 to convert laudable intentions into actual economic growth.
For one, next year provides a significant milestone in the post-Brexit relationship with Europe. The implementation of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement is due to be reviewed, and work is already ongoing to carry out the pledges made at the 2025 reset summit. Our report ‘Reimagining UK-EU Trade and Cooperation’ details eight suggestions for how the trade relationship between UK and EU can be improved without the need for major renegotiation. We know from our communications with our members how eager businesses on both sides of the Channel are to see trade barriers removed, so London and Brussels must seize this moment.
The government will also need to deliver on the pledges made in the Trade Strategy. This includes supporting businesses to make the most of the trade deals it has struck, including with India, the US and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) which it joined in 2024. This also includes this week’s announced agreement with South Korea and the eagerly awaited deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). We will continue to partner with the Department for Business and Trade in helping to raise awareness of these opportunities.
This year also marked the 90th since the Chartered Institute was founded in 1935. At its inception, the Chartered Institute was operating against a backdrop of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Our mission to empower global trade remains as relevant as ever, and we remain steadfast in our belief that trade is a solution, not a cause, to the challenges we face.
We hope you can rest, reflect and enjoy the festivities over the Christmas period, as 2025 draws to a close. We look forward to continuing to work with you to empower global trade in 2026.
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