MIC is the worldwide leading provider of global customs and trade compliance cloud solutions (AI-Assisted) for automated customs and trade compliance: https://www.mic-cust.com/
AI is rapidly transforming industries and is now poised to reshape global trade.
A recent World Trade Organization (WTO) report suggests that AI could increase import and export values by nearly 40% by 2040, while global GDP could grow by 12-13%. According to the report, AI can reduce trade costs, streamline logistics, automate paperwork and strengthen supply chain intelligence.
At the same time, trade makes AI more inclusive by giving economies access to AI‑enabling goods such as semiconductors, electronic components and specialised hardware.
“AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity,” WTO director general Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted in the report’s foreword.
“However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven.”
A two-way relationship
The WTO highlights that AI and trade reinforce each other. Trade accelerates the spread of AI technologies by providing access to hardware, data and expertise. AI, in turn, improves trade efficiency by reducing costs and optimising logistics.
In 2023, global trade in AI-enabling goods reached US$2.3trn. Under favourable policy and investment conditions, the WTO predicts global trade could rise by 34-37% and world GDP could grow by 12-14 percent by 2040.
However, these gains depend heavily on policy choices, infrastructure development and digital inclusion, particularly in developing economies.
Policy challenges: from tariffs to trust
The report underscores that policy and regulation now play a central role in shaping AI’s impact on trade. Key findings include:
- Rising trade barriers: Restrictions on AI-relevant goods increased from around 130 measures in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024. In some low-income economies, tariffs on AI-related goods reach up to 45%.
- Data and services as critical enablers: Many of AI’s most transformative effects will come through digitally delivered services, but ensuring cross-border data flows remains a major challenge.
- Need for complementary policies: Investments in broadband, cloud infrastructure, renewable energy and digital skills must accompany trade liberalisation to avoid widening inequalities.
- Interoperable AI regulation: Fragmented national rules, such as conflicting data localisation requirements, risk increasing trade costs and slowing innovation.
The WTO also recently introduced the AI Trade Policy Openness Index (AI‑TPOI). It shows that while many high-income economies maintain open regimes for AI trade and data flows, several middle-income economies remain comparatively restrictive. These policy differences could shape who benefits from AI-driven trade and who risks being left behind.
The report stresses that inclusion must be central to this transition. While AI can significantly enhance productivity and efficiency, its benefits will not be evenly distributed unless policies address labor market disruptions, bridge digital divides, support fair competition and mitigate environmental impacts.
What does this mean for businesses
For trading professionals, these developments bring both challenges and opportunities. To remain competitive, businesses should focus on several areas:
- Digital readiness as a trade advantage: The ability to process, analyse and exchange data across borders is becoming essential. To benefit from this, businesses need to understand their data and have processes for ensuring it is clear and accurate. AI-driven compliance tools and automated customs systems are emerging as core trade infrastructure.
- Rapid regulatory change: As countries refine AI and data governance frameworks, compliance environments will evolve quickly. Flexible, configurable software will be crucial.
- Inclusion as a growth driver: Companies that help close digital gaps - through interoperable systems, training or access to digital trade tools - will find new opportunities as more economies adopt AI.
At MIC, AI and machine learning are already embedded in next-generation trade management solutions to simplify and enhance complex customs processes. These include:
- Customs tariff classification: AI models trained on trade-specific data automate classification tasks, reduce errors and save time.
- AI assistants and copilots: These tools guide users through customs declarations with suggestions and step-by-step support.
- Intelligent trade document processing (IDP): AI-powered IDP extracts and structures data from PDFs, images and spreadsheets, enabling cost-effective, automated workflows.
With these capabilities, trade professionals can stay ahead of evolving compliance and operational demands. Companies operating at the intersection of AI and trade - such as those using MIC’s digital trade and customs solutions - will play a key role in realising the WTO’s vision of AI-enhanced global trade that benefits all.
