After the recent ‘hat trick’ of trade deals with the US, India and the EU, which country is the UK most likely to sign its next agreement with?
In today’s Daily Update, we’re taking a look at what has been said on negotiations with Middle Eastern nations, Canada, Turkey and Israel.
Gulf deal next up?
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could be next in line for a deal with the UK, according to chancellor Rachel Reeves.
In an interview with the BBC, Reeves said that the UK plans to achieve a deal with the bloc including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
The UK is in a better trading position "than any other country in the world", she said, and this puts it in a good position for a Gulf agreement. Trade deals have “come along like buses”, though she added, incidentally, that the UK was "not looking to have trade negotiations with China".
The prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, spoke with Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman on 20 March to discuss “ways to develop” the “areas of existing cooperation” between the nations. Starmer has noted that there has been “good progress” on the deal, while David Lammy, the foreign secretary, also paid a visit to Qatar and Oman in April to pursue “huge investment opportunities” for the UK in the Gulf.
Turkey talks
Improving trade relations with Turkey also appears to be on the government’s agenda, after business and trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds and trade policy minister Douglas Alexander met with Turkish counterparts Ömer Bolat and Mustafa Tuzcu earlier this month.
The ministers confirmed that formal trade talks on an improved free trade agreement (FTA) between the two nations are set to begin in July, and signed an “upgraded” Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) chapter as an amendment to the 2020 UK-Turkey FTA. This “closely aligns UK-Turkey TBT provisions with those found in the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), reducing costs and making it easier for businesses to trade”, the government noted.
It was also noted that the ministers “underlined the importance of defending free trade” in a context of international trade wars and tariffs. Reuters reported, meanwhile, that the talks this month were an “important step in the modernisation process” according to Bolat, who said sections of an FTA on auto and chemical trade had been agreed. How long it takes for the rest to be agreed may become clearer in July.
Canada
New Canadian prime minister Mark Carney’s position on a UK deal seems positive so far, particularly given his call for renewed alliances between Western nations beyond the US and his previous position as the governor of the Bank of England.
Carney visited the UK in March after becoming winning the recent election, while Ralph Goodale, the Canadian High Commissioner to the UK, said “we'll continue to work at that small margin that's left” on an agreement. That small margin yet to be agreed does include tricky areas of agriculture, however, over which the UK walked away from talks in 2024.
British High Commissioner to Canada Rob Tinline said in an interview this week that the agriculture issues are ones “that we need to come back to” before the conclusion of a deal. The remarks come ahead of a throne speech by King Charles III that will open the new session of the Canadian parliament, and which could hint at the possibility of a deal as it lays out the new government’s priorities.
Israel pause
The UK had been in negotiations on a new trade deal with Israel for almost three years when Lammy formally suspended talks last week. A blockade on aid entering the Gaza Strip was described as “intolerable” by the foreign secretary in the House of Commons.
This suspension came alongside the implementation of new sanctions on figures in the West Bank region, which targeted “three individuals, two illegal settler outposts and two organisations supporting violence against Palestinian communities”.
Lammy has voiced the UK’s “complete opposition to the IDF’s new, extensive ground operation through Gaza”. The future of any deal is unclear, but Lammy has said that “we will be reviewing cooperation with [Israel] under the 2030 bilateral roadmap”. For now, the country is not at the front of the queue.
Others
Switzerland could also be in line for an FTA, after a sixth round of negotiations took place in March.
Then, the government said that it is seeking market access for UK services suppliers in a way that “facilitates the seamless flow of data and ideas between two world-leading services powerhouses”, as well as a smoother regime for UK business travel to Switzerland.
“Services, investment and digital trade” terms not currently in place under the existing UK-Switzerland FTA were also identified as targets, while “customs and trade facilitation” measures were agreed during this latest round of talks. The next is scheduled for “early summer”.
In April, meanwhile, the UK government issued an update on its trade talks with South Korea. Negotiators “engaged productively” at the talks, it said, with progress reported on “rules of origin arrangements”, a chapter on digital trade and other areas including “environment, trade and gender equality and supply chains”.
That update also emphasised that the government “will only ever sign a trade agreement which aligns with the UK’s national interests, upholding high standards across a range of sectors”, which includes “protections” for the NHS. As with Switzerland, the next round of negotiations are scheduled for the summer.
