Renewed dialogue between the UK and EU is a sign that the British government’s pledge of a “reset” with Brussels has already succeeded, according to experts on the post-Brexit relationship.
Ahead of last year’s UK general election, Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party promised to “reset the relationship (with the EU) and seek to deepen ties with our European friends, neighbours and allies”.
With a summit of British and European leaders to take place this coming Monday (19 May), trade policy expert David Henig said that this pledge had, “in one sense”, already been fulfilled.
“In one sense, the reset has already been a success because we’re having this dialogue,” he said at a live event hosted by the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade on LinkedIn yesterday (14 May).
‘Change the tone’
Henig, who heads the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE), added that the Labour government had wanted to “change the tone” in the relationship following the “legacy of discomfort” from the withdrawal negotiations.
He said that the EU still views the UK with “caution” following the at-times strained post-Brexit talks, saying that a “hesitancy” towards Britain is likely to continue for some years.
The relationship is also probably more central to the UK’s economic prospects than Europe’s, with the bloc representing “approximately 50% of UK trade” compared to Britain representing 12 to 13% of Europe’s, he noted.
However, he added that this “still makes the UK the second largest partner for the EU after the US, and that relationship is a bit questionable at the moment,” he said.
Volume not values
Fergus McReynolds, the EU and international director at the Chartered Institute, said that there are strong reasons for the UK-EU relationship to be a priority for London and Brussels decisionmakers.
He noted “shared policy objectives”, their geographical proximity and also their being “geopolitically in a similar place”, particularly given the impact of the Trump administration on US security and trade policy this year.
When asked how the UK might prioritise its relationships with the EU and US, particularly in the Trump era, Henig noted that it would be “trade volumes” rather than “values” that would dictate policy.
“The UK government has been very clear that, where there is pressure, the trade relationship with the EU is the most important,” he said.
“I don’t think it’s as much a value judgement as a volume judgement. [The EU] reflects the larger amount of trade that we have. If we’re forced to choose, the government will choose the larger trade relationship”.
Having it both ways?
McReynolds and Henig agreed that the government is likely to try to avoid having to choose between the two, but both noted that the UK’s agreements with other countries will impact what it can do with the EU.
“The two are not mutually exclusive – it’s not about having a good relationship with one of the EU or US, the government will look to have both,” said McReynolds.
“However, trade is three-dimensional,” he added. “What you say with one trading partner can impact what you can do with another”.
“Trump is erratic but there is not really a concerted US effort to undermine the UK-EU reset,” said Henig.
Momentum
Monday’s summit between the UK and EU leaders reflects the shared desire from London and Brussels to “have a new look” at the relationship, said McReynolds.
Noting that it will be a “leader-to-leader” event, he said the scope of the summit will be about “setting the political direction” for ongoing dialogue between the two parties, with an aim to “create momentum” rather than going into the “technical minutiae” of the relationship.
McReynolds noted that this is “not a one-off” but the first in a series of annual summits that will take place across the next few years, over the course of the current UK government and European Commission mandates.
He said that technical talks between the two will have been taking place in the months leading up to the summit, with the summit “not a culmination” of these negotiations but part of an “ongoing iterative process”.
‘Substantial agenda’
Henig warned listeners not to expect “a whole lot of new trade agreements” but instead suggested “heads and terms” or “common understandings” could be announced.
He predicted that something around defence and security could be announced, but beyond that suggested that the two will “set out areas that the UK and EU have broadly agreed to take forward in discussions”.
He said that aligning UK and EU veterinary rules, as the bloc has done with Switzerland, is likely to be one such area, alongside linkages of emissions trading schemes, youth mobility and possibly fish.
He was less sure on professional qualifications and mobility rights for touring artists – both of which were identified as areas for improvement in last year’s Labour manifesto.
“It is a relatively substantial agenda, and the aim will be for talks on those elements be concluded within a year or two, such that they can be implemented ahead of the next elections in the UK and EU,” he said.
Post-summit analysis
The Chartered Institute will be monitoring and analysing developments at the summit in its editorial content next week, including in its Daily Update newsletter.
McReynolds will also be speaking at an exclusive event for the Chartered Institute’s members on Tuesday 20 May, the day after the summit, alongside Caroline Read, the deputy ambassador in the UK mission to the EU.
Members can sign up to this event here.
