After 2025 saw a dramatic retooling of trade flows following the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, as well as the continuation of Russia’s war in Ukraine and other major events, Global Trade Today is today looking ahead to what 2026 could hold for trade and geopolitics.
The most dramatic news of the year so far was the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by US forces over the weekend, a curtain-raiser for a year likely full of major geopolitical events.
Together with the US’ sustained focus on tariffs as a tool to reshape global trade, it could prove a catalyst for a major year in trade.
Tariff shifts?
The story on tariffs will continue being written after a tumultuous 2025 that saw the biggest change to US trade for a generation: the introduction of Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff regime.
This year, Trump may choose to soften some aspects of the policy, something he has already done as part of quickly-agreed deals with Latin American nations like Argentina and Brazil. These lowered tariffs on agricultural goods including beef and coffee, where price increases have unsettled voters ahead of November’s midterm US elections.
Last week, there were indications of further softening of the policy. Italy’s foreign ministry said that the US had cut its proposed new duties on Italian pasta imports following an investigation into Italian trade measures. A US Commerce Department official told Reuters that Italian exporters had addressed concerns previously raised by the US government.
Spring Forecast
The next fiscal event in Parliament from chancellor Rachel Reeves will be the Spring Forecast, which is scheduled for 3 March.
At the previous fiscal statement, the Autumn Budget, the chancellor raised some taxes and put additional funding into apprenticeships, among other measures. With inflation falling but growth low or negative in recent months, there will again be plenty to watch for on Reeves’ decisions.
As the government explained at the announcement of the date, the forecast “will not make an assessment of the government’s performance against the fiscal mandate”, but rather “provide an interim update on the economy and public finances”. The Office for Budget Responsibility is preparing an economic and fiscal forecast for publication on 3 March, with a response due from Reeves.
The forecast will come ahead of local elections in May, which could also give an indication of the political direction of the UK.
EU customs
The EU will select a seat for its new EU Customs Authority (EUCA) this year, after it opened applications to member states to host it in October last year.
Brussels says that the EUCA will support customs authorities in member nations to simplify customs for businesses, “ensuring the effective collection of duties and taxes for both EU and national budgets, and contributing to enhancing protection of the Single Market against unsafe or illicit products”.
An EU Customs Data Hub will form part of the organisation’s mandate, which is intended to centralise all customs data within the bloc. The final decision on the location of the EUCA will be made by the European Commission, it explained in October.
There will be plenty of other customs developments in 2026, and the year began with one major moment: the implementation of the next phase of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The ‘definitive period’ of the regulation began on 1 January, with EU importers now required to buy CBAM certificates for affected goods over volumes of 50 tonnes.
Fergus McReynolds, the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade’s director of EU public affairs, said that it is not only CBAM coming “fully into play” this year, but there is also “EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) compliance on the horizon, EU customs reforms and the removal of de minimis thresholds” to consider, marking a year of “profound change”.
UK FTAs and EU ‘reset’
The next phase in the UK government’s ‘reset’ with the EU beckons in 2026, and comes in the context of a number of remarks from government figures on the potential benefits of a new UK-EU customs union.
Over the weekend, prime minister Sir Keir Starmer gave his strongest indications so far of a willingness to bring the UK closer to the EU on customs, with alignment possible across a range of industries. He told the BBC:
"I think we should get closer, and if it's in our national interest to have even closer alignment with the single market, then we should consider that, we should go that far. I think it's in our national interest to go further."
Speaking at the end of last year, health secretary Wes Streeting added to suggestions from justice secretary and deputy PM David Lammy that such a union could boost UK business. Interviewed by the Observer, Streeting said in December that a “deeper trading relationship” with Brussels could revive UK growth.
A formal review of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) takes place this year, and McReynolds says it is a “milestone year” for the agreement ten years on from the Brexit referendum.
“For the UK and EU, progress on sanitary and phyto-sanitary alignment and emissions trading linkage remains critical in the first half of the year.
“Addressing these profound changes will take time, which is why the Chartered Institute continues to call for deeper UK-EU cooperation on industrial policy, customs reform, and digital border solutions, to keep trade flowing in an era of economic security.”
