Questions about the future of the multilateral trading system will converge in Cameroon as Trade ministers meet for the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Elsewhere, the US/Israel-Iran conflict rages on, with a welcome delay in strikes on Iranian energy plants from US President Donald Trump and not so welcome growth impacts for the UK economy.
The week has also seen more tentative progress towards the implementation of the EU-US trade deal, while China counters US trade probes with its own investigations.
The big picture: The WTO MC14 got underway this week in the Cameroonian capital of Yaoundé.
Described by WTO director general Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as a “turning point” event for the organisation, headlines prior to the event focused on the efforts of mid-level powers to resituate the organisation as a bastion of rules-based trade.
Canadian prime minister Mark Carney offered to facilitate collaboration between EU nations and members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), including Canada and the UK, to restore rules-based trade last month.
Prior to the imposition of his tariff regime last year, which flies in the face of the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) principle set out by the WTO on trade between countries without an agreement in place, by failing to appoint US judges to arbitrate trade disputes between members in his first term, Trump has repeatedly undermined the efficacy of the organisation.
In addition to preserving its core principles, MC14 will also address key issues including whether to extend the e-commerce moratorium, which prevents nations applying tariffs to electronic transmissions, and rules around subsidies and agricultural trade.
That conference will be taking place over the weekend, concluding Sunday 29 March. In the meantime, you can read our executive editor William Barns-Graham’s deep dive into how the conference could shift the global trade landscape.
Good week/bad week: As noted by trade expert David Henig in that piece, the Iran crisis is inevitably taking up a lot of oxygen in the conference hall.
A spot of good news today as Trump announced he would be extending the delay on power plant strikes for another 10 days while ‘talks’ with Tehran continue.
Throughout the week, Trump has continued to insist negotiations are going well, while Iranian leaders have insisted that the talks are a fiction created by the US president to manipulate oil markets.
Financial analysts noted a striking volume of profitable oil bets placed in the minutes leading up to Trump’s post about “productive” talks with Iran at the start of the week (23 March), which has been widely circulated in the media.
Bad news for UK chancellor Rachel Reeves, after the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released figures predicted the economic hit national economies will take from the crisis. The BBC reports UK is expected to fare worst out of the G20 economies, with growth downgraded from 1.2% to 0.7%.
Reeves announced there would be targeted relief for households least able to weather the anticipated spike in energy prices this summer, when regulator Ofgem’s energy cap is next revised. Full details of how the support will be allocated have yet to be announced.
The UK’s dependence on energy imports and vulnerability to external shocks like the current crisis have been debated this week, with suggestions that impinge on the green agenda being floated by some actors. Offshore Energies UK (OEUK), a trade body which advocates on behalf of all offshore energy sources including renewable, backed drilling in the North Sea to support UK energy independence.
Labour banned new licences to drill in the North Sea, with energy secretary Ed Miliband continuing to back limiting investment to clean sources.
How’s stat? 15%. That’s the tariff hill the EU is determined to die on, as members of the European Parliament voted yesterday (26 March) to approve the US trade deal agreed last year.
However, could the bloc still be on a potential collision course with the US? Over on Capitol Hill, Section 301 investigations into trade partners, including the US, are still ongoing. It’s expected that the US will use the outcome, expected in July, to reimpose the reciprocal tariff regime struck down by the Supreme Court earlier this year.
Yet deal safeguards introduced by MEPs included no further rates on EU goods beyond the 15%, and no further levies on other European goods. If these terms are broken by the US, the EU will renege.
On the topic of US trade probes, China has pulled no punches with counter-investigations into US trade barriers. A source of further tension for leader Xi Jinping and Trump to face when their delayed meeting takes place in mid-May.
Quote of the week: “It brings a lot of weight and importance to the qualification, when you have someone who is giving you guidance… who actually has real-world experience, and you can see that in every one of the tutorials and lectures.”
Head of product and service development at Royal Mail Group, Anthony Franey, speaking at the Chartered Institute’s Virtual Open Day for its suite of global trade qualifications.
You can watch that event via the link above, to learn more about how a formal qualification can support the growth of your trade and customs career.
The week in customs: Under one month to go until the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) closes its call for evidence on dynamic alignment of sanitary and phytosanitary rules as part of the reset of relations with the EU.
You can have your say on how alignment will affect your business or organisation here.
Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs is especially keen to hear from “businesses of all types and sizes across agri-food sectors, producers, farmers, manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, veterinarians, logistics companies; business representative organisations; professional advisers; trade bodies; local authorities and Port Health Authorities; commercial ports and Border Control Post operators; border enforcement; non-governmental organisations and third sector organisations”.
The Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade will be submitting our own response to the consultation, informed by member views. Members can get in touch with Customs Practice lead Anna Doherty to share their views for submission: anna.doherty@export.org.uk
What else we covered: The impact of the Iran crisis on shipping was explored in this instalment of State of Freight.
Tariffs aside, other North American trade travails featured in a regional trade digest, which reviewed the other outputs from Carney’s first year as PM.
True facts: The UK’s trade envoy programme now includes 31 envoys working across 72 markets, as DBT announced Labour MP for Hemel Hempstead David Taylor would serve as trade envoy to Japan.
The announcement highlights the role envoys play in supporting ambassadors, high commissioners, and His Majesty’s Trade Commissioners (HMTCs) in promoting strong international trade relations.
In the latter category, diplomat David Reed has been appointed as HMTC for eastern Europe and central Asia.
