This week’s trade news saw another blow to UK steelmakers, a pre-budget boost for chancellor Rachel Reeves and downward revision of next year’s trade growth forecast by the WTO.
The big picture: There’s been a big setback for UK steel over the last few days. The industry was already contending with the 50% tariff rates introduced by the US, and this week the EU confirmed that it would follow suit and slap its own 50% rates on steel imports, as well as lower its tariff-free quotas for trading partners.
European Commission (EC) trade commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič, told reporters that the EU’s hands were tied, saying the US had effectively said: “Look, we already adopted very robust measures — what are you Europeans going to do?”. He added:
“We decided to do it in our European way. It means we keep our markets open and we are offering quotas for our partners.”
It was suggested on Wednesday (8 October) that the UK could introduce retaliatory measures against the EU at the Trade Remedies Association (TRA) Forum held in Birmingham this week. Department for Business and Trade director general for trade relations, Kate Joseph, told summit attendees that the department “will do what we need to do in order to defend the steel industry”.
“We have a number of different options available to us, and at this point, we’re not making any decisions about how we would use them, but all of this remains possible.”
Good week/bad week: A bit of good news ahead of next month’s Autumn Budget for chancellor Rachel Reeves, as she’ll have an additional £3bn to play with after an Office for National Statistics (ONS) error was rectified this week.
Incorrect public finance data that the office attributed to issues with VAT receipts supplied by tax authorities led to an overestimation of government borrowing between April 2024 and September 2025. Not such good news for the ONS, which has faced criticism recently for flawed employment figures also stemming from data inaccuracies.
Also, a bad week for EU environmental legislation, as Brussel’s landmark anti-deforestation legislation may be simplified as well as delayed by a year.
Euractiv reports that EC environment commissioner, Jessika Roswall, told Renew party MEPs yesterday (9 October) that the IT problems preventing the law coming into effect on the original scheduled date of 30 December are linked to the volume of data that needs to be uploaded by smallholders.
A Renew MEP told the publication that in order to resolve the issue, Roswall suggested exempting some smallholders from the need to report at all – a demand made by many of the European Parliament’s centre-right Austrian and German MPs.
The changes were proposed as EC president, Ursula von der Leyen, survived another set of no confidence votes, partly brought by the far-right parliamentary contingent.
More galling for the beleaguered president, a rebellion by French MEPs from her own parliamentary faction, the centre-right European People’s Party’s (EPP), over the Mercosur trade deal. Senior EOO MEP, François-Xavier Bellamy, sided with far-right leader, Jordan Bardella, during the approval cote for the trade deal.
How’s stat? 0.5%. That’s the WTO’s trade growth forecast for 2026 – a downgrade from earlier predictions. According to its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, increased North American imports ahead of Trump’s tariffs and greater AI use kept trade growth resilient this year.
WTO director general, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said that despite this year’s better figures, “complacency is not an option”.
“Today's disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere.”
The week in customs: Insights from this week’s TRA Forum lead our latest instalment of Customs Corner, along with recent Customs Declarations Service releases and changes to health certificates.
Quote of the week: “In the past year, Miss Machado has been forced to live in hiding. Despite serious threats against her life, she has remained in the country, a choice that has inspired millions. When authoritarians seize power, it is crucial to recognise courageous defenders of freedom who rise and resist.”
The Nobel committee on Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado, who has won this year’s Nobel Peace Prize.
What else we covered this week: We had another edition of our Export Controls Brief, featuring a review of 2025 sanctions on Russia, as well as an update to the AUKUS Open General Export Licence.
Greenland was the topic of this week’s Commodity in Focus, as the race for critical minerals hots up among world powers.
We also reviewed the latest news from Europe, with consequential elections in Moldova and the Czech Republic, and the reasons behind the delay in Russian sanctions.
True facts: New EU legislation to support clean drinking water has made it potentially more expensive to ensure a hot shower across the bloc.
The FT reports that hafnium, a heat-resistant metal, is not on the list. Neither is zirconium, both of which are commonly used in hot water tanks and heat pumps.
Some manufacturers are insisting the products are “absolutely safe” to use, with alternatives like cooper or steel four times the price, and the prohibition making 90% of current tanks unmarketable.
The European Drinking Water Directive will go into effect from 31 December 2026. It established four different sets of ‘positive lists’ of materials that can come into contact with drinking water, with hafnium and zirconium not listed among the metallic list.
