This week saw the delivery of the Autumn Budget, the US facing pushback on tariff deals from one trading partner and the launch of both a new customs tool and sector specific whitepaper by the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade.
While Canada is hoping to boost oil exports with a new pipeline project in the works, Mexican trade has risen steadily in recent months despite slowing exports.
The big picture: After months of interminable speculation, leaks and U-turns, UK chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Autumn Budget this week, deemed make or break for both Reeves and prime minister Sir Keir Starmer.
While commentators continue to debate whether the freezing of income tax bands constitutes a break of Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase the three main taxes, the picture for trade was clearer.
The de minimis rule exempting low-value imports from customs duties will end by 2029 at the latest, eligibility for enterprise incentives designed to support businesses scale was widened and indirect emissions won’t be within the scope of the UK’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism when in comes into force in 2027.
The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that budget measures increase UK exports by 0.9% by 2030.
You can read our full write-up here.
Good week/bad week: Good news for Mexico, which moved from trade deficit to trade surplus last month, according to data published this week.
Mexico recorded a US$0.6bn trade surplus in October, having posted a US$2.4bn deficit the month before. Exports have continued to grow year-on-year in recent months, with the deficit reversal partially attributed to lower imports.
Exports were 14.2% up on last October, and the country is exporting non-oil goods and also benefiting from resilient US demand – the country’s largest trading partner. This is despite poor recent US economic data.
An impasse between the US and Indonesia, as the South-East Asian nation is refusing to sign a tariff agreement that includes restrictive loyalty clauses.
The US has been including so-called ‘poison pill’ clauses in recent tariff agreements that enable it to void the deal if partners sign pacts that could threaten US economic interests, with Malaysia and Cambodia accepting similar deals last month.
The move intends to curb Chinese influence in the region.
An Indonesian official told the FT that the nation couldn’t accept the terms as they threaten its “economic sovereignty”.
Experts suggest that Indonesia’s greater economic might and comparably lower reliance on the US as an export market, could give it better leverage in future negotiations.
How’s stat? 1,100km. That’s the length of the pipeline Canada is planning to build to connect its oil-rich North to the West Coast.
The decision to press ahead with the pipeline – which PM Mark Carney’s government hopes will support greater oil exports to Asia – is motivated by ongoing tensions with the US and the need to diversify its exports.
Yesterday (27 November) a memorandum of understanding was announced between Carney and the premier of Alberta, home to Canada’s oil fields. However, the FT reports that the national government will still need the support of western province British Columbia and indigenous governments.
While Carney stated he wants Canada to become “an energy superpower, drive down our emissions and diversify our export markets”, environmental groups have condemned the project and say it further Trump’s ambitions for “an uncompetitive, volatile and fossil-fuelled North American economy”.
Quote of the week: “It was good to hear [the chancellor’s] strong commitment to open trade and her praise for recent trade deals. Furthermore, reflecting on our call to the chancellor for investment to close the gap on skills shortages which plague international trade supply chains, it is encouraging to see that there will be fully funded SME apprenticeships for eligible people under 25.”
Marco Forgione, Chartered Institute director general, on one of the Budget measures the organisation welcomes. You can read his full remarks here.
The week in customs: The Chartered Institute has made a new customs tool available for traders this week. MyCustomsInfo is designed to help businesses understand their customs duty obligations and prevent both overpayment and underpayment of duties.
What else we covered: We also have expert analysis of the Autumn Budget from our UK public affairs lead Grace Thompson, which you can read here.
Following last week’s ministerial meeting of members of the trading pact, we took a look at recent Comprehensive Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade stories.
The Chartered Institute partnered with the Aluminium Federation to author a whitepaper to support the sector to trade. Launched this week, ‘10 Things to Consider When Importing and Exporting Aluminium’ is now available for download.
True facts: While Black Friday returns with record growth predicts, headlines have been dominated by tips to help shoppers ensure they get a good deal, as research suggest that eight out of 10 ‘deals’ involve goods that will have been cheaper at other points in the year.
