This week could be a monumental one for global trade, as the US Supreme Court considers striking down the new tariffs introduced on imports this year.
It’s also a huge week for UK traders, with both the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) and the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade offering learning opportunities as part of International Trade Week.
Tariff turning point?
The world is holding its breath as the US Supreme Court prepares to rule on whether President Donald Trump’s tariff policy is legal, with seismic implications for global trade.
A case brought by small businesses affected by tariffs, as well as a grouping of US states, could see recently introduced US tariffs revoked. The US government would also be required to refund some of the money paid in duties by those exporting to the US.
Trump said yesterday that the case “is one of the most important in the History of the Country”, arguing that without presidential authority on tariffs the US would be “defenseless”. He added:
“Our recent successful negotiation with China, and many others, put us in a strong position only because we had Tariffs with which to negotiate fair and sustainable Deals.”
The Trump administration will go to the court on Wednesday (5 November), after lower courts ruled that the tariffs were indeed illegal. The makeup of the Supreme Court is currently 6-3 in favour of judges with a conservative leaning, which could give Trump an advantage. He has also said ahead of the decision that he will not attend the court this week.
UK rate cut debate
A decision from the Bank of England on cutting interest rates is due on Thursday (6 November), with a closely-fought decision to hold them at 4% likely, according to reporting by the FT.
More recently, however, the Independent has reported a cut to 3.75% is possible, with Goldman Sachs predicting a cut last week. Barclays has also said in a note seen by the newspaper that it expects “the recent downside inflation and labour market news to tip the vote to a cut”.
Inflation remained at 3.8% in September, lower than the predicted rate of 4%. That, the banks suggest, could lead to a cut in the price of borrowing.
Head of macro research at BNP Paribas Asset Management Richard Barwell told the FT that “recent good news on services inflation” means that “it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if the bank does cut, despite what market pricing implies”.
International Trade Week
This week is International Trade Week, and the Chartered Institute is getting involved across the programme.
Tomorrow features a Chartered Institute webinar on bridging the trade skills gap, exploring educational opportunities in the industry and the careers they can open up. Rob Nitsch, chief executive of the Federation of Awarding Bodies, will be in attendance as a guest speaker. You can sign up for that session here.
On Wednesday, a Chartered Institute webinar produced in partnership with Customs4trade will look at how customs special procedures can support businesses that trade internationally. Returned goods relief and temporary admission will both be in focus. Members and non-members alike can sign up for that session here.
We are also this week launching the Approved Customs Practitioner standard for professionals working in customs. The new professional status demonstrates customs excellence and knowledge that is verified by the Chartered Institute. You can hear from our director general and from other leading voices in the industry about the new standard here.
What else is in the news
· The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) have issued a report finding that small businesses need “urgent” help to export, as 27% of surveyed firms saw decreased overseas orders
· Trump has said that Nvidia’s most advanced microchip will not be available in countries besides the US – and that he “doubt[s]” that the US will go to war with Venezuela
· European tourists are forgoing US trips to holiday on the home continent, according to Ryanair, whose profits increased 40% between April and September this year on the back of the trend
Other dates for the diary
Monday: Manufacturing PMIs published for the UK, US, Germany, China, Japan and others
Tuesday: Voters in New York select a new mayor, with Democrat outsider Zohran Mamdani likely to take the job
Wednesday: UK services PMIs published
Thursday: COP30 leaders’ summit begins in Brazil
Friday: Hungarian president Viktor Orban visits the White House
Saturday: New president of Bolivia Rodrigo Paz assumes office
Sunday: Remembrance Sunday
