This week hinges around the fate of the ceasefire in the Middle East, with the two-week peace ending imminently and diplomatic wrangling around a possible extension likely to last until the deadline.
Elsewhere, the UK looks to negotiate agreements on steel and automotive exports with the EU, while major figures from the global left return from a summit in Spain, where trade, tariffs and the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were discussed.
Middle East war
The world awaits the fate of the Iran-US ceasefire ahead of the expiry of the two-week pause in hostilities on Wednesday (22 April).
The US seized an Iranian cargo vessel yesterday (19 April) that was allegedly attempting to run the US-enforced blockade. Central Command said that M/V Touska was intercepted in the north Arabian Sea, with no reported casualties after a six-hour chase.
Central Command added that 25 commercial vessels have been turned around since the start of the blockade.
Iran's military said the ship had been traveling from China. "We warn that the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy by the U.S. military," a military spokesperson said, according to Reuters.
"One cannot restrict Iran's oil exports while expecting free security for others," Iran's First Vice President Mohammadreza Aref wrote on social media.
“The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or the risk of significant costs for everyone.”
Observers are concerned for the fate of the fragile ceasefire, ahead of talks due to begin this week.
Negotiations between delegates from the US and Iran are set to begin in Islamabad ahead of the expiry of the ceasefire. In interviews with American press, US President Donald Trump suggested that his Vice President, JD Vance, would not be attending, while Iran is said to be wavering on whether to attend the negotiations in light of the seizure and continuing blockade.
Move on from Trump?
A number of key left-wing political leaders have made their opposition to Trump and his allies clear over the weekend, with former allied nations increasingly willing to break with the US over its economic and foreign policy.
At the Global Progressive Mobilisation conference in Barcelona this weekend (18-19 April), figures from the global left met, including Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.
All of these leaders have received significant political boosts from presenting themselves as bastions against Trump.
Sánchez, who faces Spanish national elections next year and is said to be positioning himself either for a fourth term as PM or a possible EU role, attacked Trump for eroding multilateral institutions with his actions in the Middle East and tariff programme.
“He’s not just acting as a Spanish leader. He’s trying to exercise European leadership,” a senior EU parliament official told Politico.
Elsewhere, Canadian PM Mark Carney, who was not at the event, released a video on Sunday calling his country’s economic ties to the US a “weakness”.
“Many of our former strengths, based on our close ties to America, have become our weaknesses, weaknesses that we must correct,” Carney said in a video address released Sunday.
“Workers in our industries most affected by US. Tariffs in autos and steel in lumber are under threat. Businesses are holding back investments restrained by the pall of uncertainty that's hanging over all of us.”
Carney secured a Liberal majority in Canada’s parliament for the first time last week with a series of defections and by-elections. He had previously been leading a minority administration, having led his Liberals to a comeback win in last year’s Canadian federal election, powered by his opposition to Trump.
In doing so he’s brought together a broad church of MPs that include a former hard-right Conservative and a leading member of the left-wing New Democratic Party, with a message of national unity against the US’ economic approach.
Carney, Sanchez and Lula are major critics of the Trump approach to both tariffs and the Middle East. If the ceasefire fails or the blockade continues, expect these leaders to be some of the first to condemn Trump.
Whether this amounts to anything other than a press statement is unknown but could add to a sense that some of the US’ former stalwart allies are moving in a new direction.
EU-UK relations push
Downing Street is hoping to secure closer economic ties with the EU amid continuing economic and political turbulence.
As PM, Sir Keir Starmer faces questions about the ongoing scandal around Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador, and the Middle East war looks set to hammer the UK economy.
The Guardian reports that Starmer’s administration will push for agreements on both steel and electric vehicles (EVs). The EU agreed to steel restrictions last week to protect against overcapacity, including higher tariffs and a lower tariff-free quota for imports, which are due to come into effect 30 June.
While the UK is not the target of these measures, British exports could be impacted without a deal. EU relations minister Nick Thomas-Symonds told the BBC that the UK would be “ruthlessly pragmatic” and “ambitious” about becoming closer to the EU.
Speaking in Brussels after an event last week, Thomas-Symonds said that steel and EVs would be discussed this year, according to the Guardian.
“Even if there was no wider reset discussion going on, steel at this moment would be something as a matter of discussion.”
Over the weekend
- The pro-Russian former Bulgarian president Rumen Radev won Sunday’s Bulgarian elections, giving Moscow a potential ally within Europe once more
- New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon urged his country’s parliament to approve a free trade agreement with India
- Figures obtained by Politico showed that cheap goods imported into the UK under the ‘de minimis’ exemption doubled in the last three years, rising to £8bn in value
Other dates for the diary
- Monday: South Korean President Lee Jae Myung holds discussions with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi
- Tuesday: Strikes on London Underground begin
- Wednesday: European Commission to announce measures to deal with fallout from the Middle East conflict
- Thursday: Celebrations for St George’s Day. Also, the Chartered Institute’s lunchtime learning programme covers the UK-India free trade agreement
- Friday: Colombian President Gustavo Petro to meet with Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez
- Saturday: Trump gives speech to the White House Correspondent’s Dinner for the first time in his presidency
- Sunday: Forty years since the Chernobyl nuclear disaster
Member exclusive
