The week begins with anticipation for the opening of nominations for the new Labour leader, although all indications are that Andy Burnham remains unopposed.
Burnham has been discussing his approach to funding the new Defence Investment Plan (DIP), signed off by outgoing prime minister Sir Keir Starmer, just as Nato allies get ready to gather in Türkiye for the alliance’s annual summit.
There’s also information on new UK digital trade corridor schemes and ongoing fallout from the EU’s reduction in its steel import quotas last week.
Labour leadership nominations open
Labour MPs planning to throw their hat in the ring for the post-Starmer leadership contest can do so from Thursday (9 July) when nominations officially open.
Aside from Burnham, no rivals have come forward following Wes Streeting’s decision to endorse the outgoing Greater Manchester Mayor after the latter won the Makerfield by-election last month.
This week’s Nato summit is already putting pressure on the next PM to reconcile the spending promises of last week’s newly published DIP, which promises an extra £15bn in funding for the UK’s armed forces.
However, Politico reports that £4.3bn of this needs to be found in the 2026 Autumn Budget, while the sources for the remaining £10.3bn aren’t entirely clear either.
Burnham has so far backed away from past comments criticising UK politicians’ subservience to the bond markets and insisted he will stick within the fiscal rules established by chancellor Rachel Reeves.
On defence, Burnham told the BBC’s Andrew Marr “I will take my responsibilities fully to fund the defence investment plan.
“If I’m in the position to do so, I will take those responsibilities extremely seriously — no compromise on the security of the nation.”
Nato meeting
On Tuesday (7 July) Nato allies will gather in Ankara, Türkiye, to discuss Russia’s war in Ukraine and what more can be done to challenge it.
According to Starmer, the UK’s DIP will bring defence spending to about 4.2% of GDP by 2035, still falling short of the 5% pledged by Nato members last year following US President Donald Trump’s criticism of the group for insufficient spending.
It’s expected that Trump will be attempting to enforce this at Ankara, with US ambassador to Nato, Matt Whitaker, telling reporters ahead of the meeting that “president Trump fully expects that all allies will step up immediately and get on the path to 5% and do it with urgency”.
The summit’s Ankara-setting hold special significant given Türkiye’s growing defence power. National defence publication TURDEF reports that its 2025 defence and aerospace exports reached a record-breaking US$10.56bn, over half of which went to EU members, Nato allies and the US according to defence secretary Haluk Görgün.
The country is reportedly targeting those military allies for further growth amid the drive to rearm in the face of Russian aggression, a prospect dividing the EU.
While Finnish president Alexander Stubb said in June that Türkiye “needs to be as close to us as possible from a security perspective”, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said earlier this year that the bloc needs to be careful to avoid falling under the influence of Russia, China and Türkiye, in a statement later retracted by the commission press office and regarded as an embarrassing misstep.
Against this backdrop, attendees will spend the 2-day event discussing how to further increase defence spending and bolster their domestic defence industries.
Steel quota challenges
Not a week since introducing lower steel import quotas – including cuts for a number of trusted trade partners – tensions are brewing amid the EU and some of its allies.
Fallout could continue this week, as Brussels faces pushback from an indignant Brazil, which claims that no agreement was in place between them when the steel quota cuts went into effect last week (1 July).
While suspected target of the measures China took a two thirds quota reduction, countries with which the EU already has a trade agreement took an average of a one third reduction. The UK’s quota fell by approximately 35%.
A Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade statement claimed that “to date, there has been no agreement between Brazil and the EU regarding compensation”. In its response, an EC spokesperson seemed to concede that an agreement had not been made, instead saying that Brussels is “working towards finalising an agreement”.
Amid the Nato drive to support the country militarily, Ukraine has also hit back at the impact of the steel quote cuts, with industry figures claiming the measures will hamper the country’s post-war recovery.
In a statement to the Kyiv Independent, steel producer ArcellorMittal Kryvyi Rih said that the new, reduced quota volumes correspond neither to “the current needs of Ukrainian producers or to the objective of post-war recovery of Ukraine's industry”.
Digital Trade Corridor pilot opportunity
UK businesses trading with France, Germany and the Netherlands can join the next round of UK digital trade corridor pilots.
Following the success of similar initiatives designed to reduce friction in cross-border trade by eliminating unnecessary paperwork and admin, the Department of Business and Trade (DBT) are running further pilots this year.
The previous round of pilots illustrated “how digital processes can make trade simpler and cheaper”, DBT said. This included up to 90% less paper documentation and a 50% reduction in admin processing time.
Businesses interested in participating can attend one of the held later this month:
- Thursday 23 July: Join: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/335331407514724?p=8SjgHmYSnvyed5wpHT / Meeting ID: 335 331 407 514 724 / Passcode: bs36bK38
- Wednesday 29 July: Join: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/368593211332151?p=RJIn0H65IUmOXSlTee / Meeting ID: 368 593 211 332 151 / Passcode: EF6Ly6Re
- Thursday 30 July: Join: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/378035567317042?p=TmkR50qgKk9ue2JcFG / Meeting ID: 378 035 567 317 042 / Passcode: 6X8AP2ws
Other dates in the diary
- Monday: Manchester mayoral election candidates published ahead of vote on July 30
- Tuesday: UN High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development begins
- Wednesday: IMF World Economic Outlook Update published
- Thursday: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei burial service
- Friday: Monthly IEA Oil Market Report published
- Saturday: Mongolian independence celebrations
- Sunday: Wimbledon Championships men’s singles final
