The recent 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) of the WTO, billed as a ‘turning point’ for the organisation, has seen talks collapse and left many issues on important trade topics unresolved, including on e-commerce.
That setback came alongside renewed military engagement from the Houthi rebel groups in the Middle East, raising fears that disruption stemming from the US-Iran war could spill into the Red Sea. That, and US President Donald Trump’s comments about the possibility of seizing Iran’s oil, have pushed the price of crude up further.
WTO stalemate continues
The WTO’s MC14, hosted in Camerom’s capital Yaoundé, failed to achieve progress on key issues seen as vital to the 166-member organisation’s future.
Reforms to tackle unfair government subsidies, agriculture trade tensions and the implementation of a digital agreement fell by the wayside after a dispute over extending the E-commerce Moratorium – through which countries are prohibited from placing tariffs on electronic transmission like emails – derailed negotiations.
Brazil argued to extend the moratorium for two years, while the US advocated to make it permanent before coming down to a four-year minimum. US Trade Representative Jaimeson Greer dissipated much goodwill by threatening members with “consequences” for not reaching an agreement.
The US also tied its cooperation on the wider working plan to reform the organisation and make it easier to pass resolutions and incorporate them into the WTO’s framework to the moratorium.
UK business and trade secretary Peter Kyle said that the outcome was a “major setback” and urged those blocking progress to recognise the “need for compromise”.
E-commerce agreement
Despite 66 countries agreeing to a landmark digital trade agreement, it won’t be adopted into the WTO framework owing to Indian opposition.
After years of negotiation, the WTO Agreement on Electronic Commerce was agreed in 2024, but has repeatedly been blocked by a small number of the 166 member states.
Although the organisation’s director general Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala praised the progress made by the 66 signatories, highlighting that it will “lower costs and unlock new opportunities” and demonstrates “the multilateral trading system can respond, and is responding, to new challenges and changing economic circumstances”, other experts challenged the latter claim, warning that the situation is indicative of the WTO’s limitations, particularly the need for consensus.
In a LinkedIn post, the International Chamber of Commerce’s secretary general Chris Southwick said it’s become “abundantly clear” that “multilateral and plurilateral trade deals will be next to impossible to deliver at the WTO until there is reform of the decision-making process”.
“It is unfair that one country can block 130 countries, representing 80% of the WTO membership, who want to get deals done”.
Iran oil grab?
Recent reporting on the veracity of US-Iran peace talks seem a distant memory as this week begins with Trump’s claims that he wants to take Iran’s oil and seize one of its major export hubs.
In an interview with the FT published yesterday (28 March), Trump said that taking Kharg Island, through which an estimated 90% of the country’s oil is exported, is an “option”, while acknowledging the move would commit US military to the ground “for a while”.
He said both that he believed Kharg Island could be taken “very easily”, and that a peace deal could “be made fairly quickly”, when asked about a ceasefire. He also noted that the US has “about 3,000 targets left” in Iran, having “bombed 13,000 targets”.
The price of Brent Crude, a common international benchmark for oil, rose again today following the interview, increasing 2.5% to reach over US$115 per barrel.
Middle East shipping threat
More unwelcome news for trade came from the region this weekend, as the Iran-backed Houthi rebels entered the conflict, with military attacks carried out on Israeli military sites.
The Yemen-based group’s military spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a televised address that its operations would continue until it “ceases its attacks and aggression”.
The group had previously targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea, resulting the crucial trading chokepoint being closed off to most vessels. The group only halted their attacks in November 2025, and shippers were cautious about returning in the months following the pause.
Thes Houthi attacks, launched in response to Israel’s campaign in against Palestine, have been estimated to have led to the diversion of US$200bn in trade, with supply chain impacts felt around the world.
Downing Street Middle East meeting
Following a Cobra meeting to assess the economic impact of the Middle East, prime minister Sir Keir Starmer will be convening business leaders and those at the forefront of operations in the Strait of Hormuz at 10 Downing Street today.
Senior representatives from the financial services, shipping and energy sectors will discuss the fallout, and receive an update on the Middle East situation from Major-General Richard Cantrill, the UK’s maritime operations commander.
As well as the rising cost of oil, other key commodities such as fertiliser, some foodstuffs and medicine are reported to be in short supply, or will be in the coming week’s should the crisis continue.
The UK imports one third of its drugs from India, which manufacturers a significant proportion of ‘generic drugs’ – off-brand products made when the original manufacturing company’s patent expires. These generic drugs make up 85% of the medicines used by the NHS.
With Middle East air cargo hubs vital to the products’ supply shut due to the conflict, concerns are increasing that the UK’s could be caught up in the disruption and left without key medicines.
Speaking to the Guardian, CEO of Medicines UK, Mark Samuels, warned that the majority of NHS distributors stock a six-eight-week supply of most drugs, creating the potential for a crunch in the coming months.
“We’re not in a crisis currently but it’s still a serious situation.”
Elsewhere in the headlines
- Politico hears from officials in Brussels amid the stand-off on youth mobility that’s hindering the EU-UK reset. They claimed that the impetus for talks is coming from the UK and concerns about its officials “cherry-picking” benefits of the bloc while side-stepping the obligations of membership are increasing
Other dates in the diary
- Monday: G7 finance and energy ministers meet to discuss Iran conflict
- Tuesday: UK GDP National Accounts released
- Wednesday: Previous energy price cap changes take effect
- Thursday: Tim Davie steps down as BBC director general
- Friday: Last two liquified natural gas tankers due to arrive in Asia and Europe from Gulf
- Saturday: FA Cup quarterfinals begin
- Sunday: Easter Sunday
