As Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch prepare for the first Prime Minister’s Questions in just over a month, expect plenty of talk about yesterday’s outlook for the global economy from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – the latest forecasts were a mixed bag for the UK.
Also today in trade, HMRC is inviting traders to help test new concepts for its Online Trade Tariff tool, and new US tariffs come into force for softwood lumber and timber products.
IMF forecasts a mixed bag for UK
The IMF published its twice-yearly global outlook report on the global economy, including updated figures for G7 nations.
The good news for Chancellor Rachel Reeves is that the UK is predicted to have the second fastest growth out of the G7 nations for this year, with GDP forecast to increase by 1.3% this year and next. Only the US is set for faster growth, says the IMF.
However, the UK is also set for stronger inflation than its peers, with prices set to rise 3.4% this year and 2.5% in 2026. Furthermore, economic growth on a per head rate, rather than gross national, is set to be only 0.4% and 0.5% in the next two years, the BBC reports.
Reeves welcomed the overall GDP growth figures but admitted that many Brits feel the national economy is “stuck”.
"Working people feel it every day, experts talk about it, and I am going to deal with it," she said.
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride pointed to the inflation figures, saying they made for “grim reading”.
Autumn Budget approaches
Ahead of the Autumn Budget next month, Reeves told Sky News this morning that her team was looking at measures to further boost growth, but noted that it was also considering “tax and spending”. She added that the UK’s departure from the EU has had “severe and long-lasting” effects on the economy.
The FT reports that Reeves is also considering reviving plans to overhaul individual saving accounts (ISAs), potentially diverting “tens of billions of pounds of savings from cash into domestic stocks, as she tries to import a US-style investment culture to Britain.”
US-China tariffs
The 2025 global trade war continues to unfold, with US tariffs on imports of “kitchen cabinets, vanities, lumber, timber and certain upholstered furniture” entering force today, the BBC reports.
The 25% duty rate today introduced for “imported kitchen cabinets and vanities” will rise to 50% on 1 January, while a 25% levy on upholstered wooden furniture could also rise to 30%. The US continues to negotiate with various partners for preferential trade agreements that would lower these rates.
Next in Trump’s sights is Chinese cooking oil, according to Reuters.
"I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution," Trump posted on social media today.
Help test new concepts for HMRC’s Online Trade Tariff
HMRC is improving the Online Trade Tariff tool – a service used to find commodity codes, rules and requirements for importing and exporting.
The department is recruiting SMEs that are thinking about increasing their import or export activity, as well as those considering or already hiring specialists to support them to trade.
Participant businesses will be asked to join a 45–60-minute online session where they will talk about how they manage imports and exports currently, review early concepts for developing the Online Trade Tariff service and help the department decide what to build next.
HMRC says the scheme is an opportunity for firms to “influence a live government service” and “make trade tasks clearer and faster for businesses like yours”.
Interested companies are asked to complete a short survey and an HMRC researcher will then contact them to arrange the online session. Firms can ask questions about the scheme by emailing tom.harding@transform.com
HMRC further notes that the “feedback is for research only and will not be shared outside the research team”.
Other news
· The UK and Turkey held a “productive” round of negotiations for an enhanced free trade agreement, with progress being made on “on digital trade, financial and professional business services, as well as investment”, the British government has announced
· The UK and Canada are looking to join the EU in a plan to use some of the US$300bn of frozen Russian central bank assets to “provide loans to Ukraine to purchase weapons and bolster its economy”, reports Bloomberg
· Following the start of the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, senior figures in the German government are already calling on Chancellor Friedrich Merz to lift current bans on arms exports to Israel, according to Politico
Yesterday in trade
· Rising US-China trade tensions began to impact global shipping, with levies introduced on ports and ships
· The UK government announced it will be consolidating its sanctions lists into one
· A report from the International Air Transport Association and Oliver Wyman found that aircraft supply chain flaws are costing the industry $11bn a year
You can read all of yesterday’s trade news here.
