The supply chain for critical minerals remains vulnerable to shocks and geopolitical risks, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Addressing this would require billions of pounds of investment and a coordinated multilateral approach.
Despite reports of a ceasefire, international logistics leaders are warning that the situation in the Middle East remains as precarious as ever, with predictions of disruptions for “months” ahead.
IEA warns of critical minerals vulnerabilities
The IEA has warned that 17 rare earth elements used in key technologies like electric vehicles, robotics and AI, are vulnerable to supply chain shocks and geopolitical disruption, despite increased demand across the world.
As the world continues through an ‘Age of Electricity’ and a ‘green transition’ away from fossil fuels, these rare earth elements remain “indispensable” to many of the technologies used in day-to-day life, said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.
However, the supply chain for these metals remains dominated by China. Birol said
“Recent disruptions have underlined how quickly these vulnerabilities can translate into real economic risks. Addressing them will require sustained investment, stronger resilience measures and deeper international cooperation.”
A new report from the IEA found that demand for magnet rare earths – such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium – has doubled since 2015 and is projected to increase by more than 30% by 2030.
Export controls brought in by China in 2025 led to disruptions for many supply chain actors. The IEA said that efforts towards diversification have fallen short, with around US$60bn required over the next decade.
Additionally, there a skills and technology gap needing to be addressed and “a comprehensive and coordinated approach” should be taken between multiple nations.
Freight rates and supply chain recovery on hold
Despite claims of a ceasefire in the Middle East, experts and industry figures are warning that it could take weeks, if not months, for the supply chain to return to normal.
Supply chain data analysts Xeneta said that the ceasefire would bring “some immediate relief” to air freight, but that a return to pre-conflict capacity and rates is still likely “one to two months away”.
Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta chief airfreight officer, said: “This has been a supply issue from the start. The moment airlines start increasing flights through Middle East airspace, it will put less pressure on the existing capacity and create a downward pressure on rates.
“Bringing air capacity back to these corridors should provide welcome relief for shippers, many of whom are facing continuing severe disruption in ocean supply chains which will take far longer to recover from this conflict."
As aviation companies use up their dwindling stocks of jet fuel, there has been a push from various companies to secure their own supply.
The FT reports that the UK has become a major exporter of US jet fuel, taking up around a quarter of the US’ exports of the fuel, as British suppliers pivot away from the Middle East.
Months not weeks
Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, told a press conference yesterday (8 April) that it would take a “period of months to get back to where supply needs to be, given the disruption to refining capacity in the Middle East”.
Data from Xeneta found that spot rates for air cargo were up 105% on the South Asia to Europe routes last week. The Europe-Middle East, Asia-Middle East and South Asia-North America routes also saw jumps of over 80% over the same period.
Intelligence from Windward AI, shared with Global Trade Today, said that the “risk profile” for ships crossing through the Strait of Hormuz remained “unchanged” despite the ceasefire.
“Whether Iran will maintain control of Hormuz during talks is unclear but all signs point to the Islamic Republic refusing to give up its leverage during the two-week period.”
“The implications of the last 40 days are going take many weeks, if not months, to unravel,” Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade director general Marco Forgione told LBC yesterday.
Israel claimed that it has killed the nephew of Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s leader, in a strike in Beirut last night. Iran, a major supporter of the Hezbollah militia group, has insisted that the ceasefire includes Lebanon, an assertion that Israel rejects. Negotiations brokered by Pakistan are set to continue over the weekend for a wider end to the war.
Leaders of European and allied nations, including UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer, Canadian PM Mark Carney, French President Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Friedrich Merz, released a joint statement celebrating the two week ceasefire and pushing for a “swift and lasting end to the war within the coming days”.
Other stories from the headlines
· The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) and the International Labour Organization have launched a pilot Employment Injury Scheme (EIS), aimed at strengthening workers' rights in Bangladesh, the world’s leading ship recycling nation
· In a Notice to Exporters, the Export Control Joint Unit (ECJU) updated the Open General Export Licence for AUKUS nations. The changes permitted “the export of goods, software or technology to any Australian, US or UK armed forces including when deployed”
· Marilyn Gladu, a Canadian MP representing a seat in Ontario hit by the Trump tariffs, has switched from the Conservatives to the Liberals. The move puts Canadian PM one step closer to securing a full majority in parliament, ahead of three by-elections next week
Yesterday in Trade
· There were reports that the UK and Mexico could restart long-stalled trade talks in the second half of 2026
· The two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US and Israel was agreed yesterday, despite US President Donald Trump saying a “civilisation will die” if a deal was not struck the day before
