The week has seen the Trump tariffs aid the re-election of Canada’s ruling party, a new minerals deal between the US and Ukraine that’s improved the mood in Kyiv and a new set of arrangements for parcels and freight under the Windsor Framework come into effect.
The big picture: It’s been an important week for various governments around the world.
Earlier in the week, the Canadian Liberal Party was propelled back into office by the impact of US tariffs implemented by president Donald Trump. Prime minister Mark Carney attacked Trump early and often on the campaign trail, resulting in a historic fourth straight victory for his party.
The Australian Labor party is next up as campaigning wraps up ahead of Australia’s federal election on Saturday (3 May). Trump’s senior adviser reportedly advised the opposition, the centre-right Liberal Party, and the impact of recent US trade and foreign policy has weighed down opposition leader Peter Dutton.
Polls currently predict that Australian PM Anthony Albanese will remain in office, possibly with a marginally expanded majority. If so, this would be the second major election in a week in which Trump may have helped ease the way for an incumbent government to win in otherwise difficult circumstances.
In a possible sign of things to come, Reform achieved a narrow win in the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election by just six votes in the early hours of this morning (2 April) in the UK. Sarah Pochin became the first Reform candidate to win a by-election, as the party made gains in local councils across the country. However, Labour holds in Doncaster, North Tyneside and the West of England Mayoral elections might soften the blow somewhat for Sir Keir Starmer, while the Conservatives look set for a grim raft of results.
Good week/Bad week: It was a good week for Ukraine’s relationship with the US, as the two nations agreed a long-awaited critical minerals deal. It could see major investment into Ukraine once the war in the country is over. Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko said that “this document is capable of delivering success for both our countries — Ukraine and the US”, while UK foreign secretary David Lammy said the UK “welcomes [the] steps taken by the US and Ukraine”.
Not such a positive week for the US economy, however, which shrank in the first three months of Trump’s presidency. GDP in the country fell by 0.3% in Q1 of 2025, while consumer sentiment has also suffered – in April, it dropped 32%, hitting its lowest level since 1990.
How’s stat: £75bn. That’s the amount of investment that the City of London has poured into developing ‘carbon bombs’, – a fossil fuel extraction project that will generate more than one gigatonne of CO2 – according to a study by the Leave it in the Ground Initiative. The climate thinktank said London-based banks were responsible for funding the projects, which could produce 420bn tonnes of carbon emissions.
The week in customs: New arrangements for the Windsor Framework came into effect 1 May. HMRC urged firms that move goods between Northern Ireland and Great Britain to be prepared ahead of the deadline. Watch this explainer from HMRC on how to comply with the guidance.
We looked at a range of opportunities for UK businesses to contribute to the government’s thinking on how to implement its planned Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), as well as a review of the ‘de minimis’ scheme for low value imports to the UK, in our member-exclusive Customs Corner feature this week.
De minimis is also in focus in the US, where an end to the easement for sub-US$800 imports from China and Hong Kong from today (2 May) could cause “considerable” economic disruption, trade experts have warned.
Quote of the week: “If a British band wants to come on tour, it's a very long conversation...the business side is very tricky.”
Luke Pritchard, lead singer of the Kooks, on the impact of Brexit on the UK music industry
What else we covered this week: The Daily Update covered how the US has reportedly downgraded the UK in trade talks, preferring to start their negotiations with Japan, India and South Korea first.
We looked at the impact of the trade tariffs and the declining US economy caused gold prices to rocket to previously unheard levels in Commodity in Focus.
Sophie Lavis, Flora Food Group’s European compliance and customs manager, explained how the Chartered Institute helped grow both her own career and her team’s customs capabilities.
Carney’s improbable comeback also featured, as he used Trump’s tariffs to pull the Liberals to a fourth successive win, while Conservative leader of the opposition, Pierre Poilievre, unexpectedly lost his seat.
True facts: Reform’s victory, if confirmed, would be the smallest majority since the Second World War at a by-election. At 6 votes, this makes the Liberals victory at the 1973 Berwick-upon-Tweed by-election and the Conservatives 62 win at the 1967 Walthamstow West by-election look like commanding majorities by comparison.
Despite the relatively small victory, this isn’t actually the lowest winning share of the vote. Conservative Henry Strauss won the Combined English Universities seat in a 1946 by-election with only 30% of the vote (amounting to 5483 votes), defeating three independent candidates. This turned out to be the final election to a university seat in England, and the penultimate one in the UK, before the practice was abolished in 1950.
Member exclusive
