This week begins with an apparent delay to the US’ self-imposed tariff deadline on Wednesday (9 July), the end of a BRICS conference that also sparked tariff threats and a French presidential visit to the UK.
Liberation Day 2.0?
Wednesday was set to mark the end of the 90-day suspension of US reciprocal tariffs on a host of trading partners.
After announcing planned duties in April, US president Donald Trump gave nations a 90-day reprieve to negotiate deals in a bid to stave off higher rates.
However, the Wednesday deadline has been thrown into doubt following comments made to reporters by Trump and commerce secretary Howard Lutnick.
When questioned on the date that rates will come into effect, Trump repeatedly referred to letters containing new tariff rates that will be sent out this week to trading partners that have not made a deal.
Lutnick stepped in to confirm that “the tariffs go into effect on the first [of August] but the president is setting the rates and the deals right now”.
The comments do not clarify whether countries can continue to negotiate beyond Wednesday, or whether new deals have been agreed and will be announced later this week.
So far, only the UK and Vietnam have secured agreement. Other major trading partners including the EU, Japan, South Korea and military ally Israel are set to face increased rates from Wednesday.
The EU’s progress to secure a deal, which has shown positive signs last week, stumbled over the weekend as the US threatened a 17% tariff rate on agricultural products, in addition to requesting exemptions from regulation for its firms.
The bloc has been aiming to secure a UK-style deal in which a baseline 10% tariff rate on all goods is achieved with scope to negotiate specific reductions in sensitive sectors – what European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen termed an “agreement in principle” last week.
BRICS meeting
Brazil will conclude hosting Russian, Indian, Chinese and South African representatives for the annual BRICS summit today.
The gathering in Rio de Janeiro will also include leaders from nations admitted to the bloc in 2023: Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Comments made by bloc members criticising attacks on Iran prompted Trump to threaten an additional 10% levy on countries “aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS”, in a post on social media.
The threat of US tariffs still hangs over several members, with India and South Africa on course for the reinstatement of reciprocal tariff rates – 26% and 30% respectively – come 9 July.
On the trade agenda this year, the bloc also discussed an extension of the WTO’s most favoured nation trading terms to all members of the organisation – a proposition undermined by the WTO’s diminished status in light of the US leaving and taking 15% of funding with it.
The bloc now comprises half the world’s population and 40% of global trade, and seeks to position itself as a coalition of emerging economies in counterbalance to Western, US-led hegemony on global governance.
UK-France summit
UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer is hosting French president Emmanuel Macron as part of a lavish state visit designed to signal increasing closeness between the two nations and improving UK-EU relations more widely.
The visit will include a business meeting on Wednesday, which City AM reports will include an assembly of ten top business leaders from each country.
That event aims to deepen economic and industrial ties, with a particular focus on priority sectors such as AI, technology, finance and life science – several of which have been allocated their own plan as part of the UK’s recently released Industrial Strategy.
The visit will end with a wider meeting of ‘the coalition of the willing’ – Western nations that have pledged military support to Ukraine amid its defence of ongoing Russian attacks.
Its currently unclear which leaders will be joining, with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy joining remotely from Rome’s Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025.
A French official told Politico that the agenda would include “how to maintain Ukraine in a capacity to fight, how to increase pressure on Russia and how to continue the work on the next steps”.
These discussions take place amid increasing US disengagement with the conflict, following failed Russia ceasefire talks and a pause in defence air missile shipments to Ukraine.
Africa webinar
From the Chartered Institute this week we have an edition of Lunchtime Learning focused on export markets in Africa. The organisation’s Africa lead, Eugene Waluvengo, will be speaking, along with trade experts on the region.
For traders interested to know more about the markets they could be selling to, there’ll be discussions on different economic landscapes and key markets, UK government support for selling to these markets, key trade agreements and arrangements, as well as case studies of UK businesses who that have succeeded in selling to the market.
You can sign up for Thursday’s session, at the regular time of 12pm, here. You can also get a taster of the insights on offer through this video.
Other dates in the diary
- Monday: Poland introduces border controls with Germany and Lithuania
- Tuesday: OBR fiscal risks and long-term projections report
- Wednesday: Bank of England Financial Stability Report
- Thursday: ASEAN foreign ministers meet with non-members including the UK, US, China and Russia
- Friday: UK overseas trade data released
- Saturday: Wimbledon women’s final
- Sunday: 40 year anniversary Live Aid
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