After last week’s Economic Prosperity Deal, which raised concerns among UK farmers, the US agriculture sector will be leading a trade delegation to the UK this week to advocate on behalf of its own industry.
US president Donald Trump will also be seeking investment in the Gulf, while EU ministers meet to plan their response to his reciprocal tariffs. The EU will be the subject too of a Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade event this week, as experts discuss the possible outcomes of next week’s EU-UK summit at a LinkedIn Live event.
US agricultural trade delegation
Following the announcement of the UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal last week, US agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins will be leading a trade delegation to the UK today (12 May). She’ll meet with her British counterpart Steve Reed, other agriculture officials and UK importers, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
A US Department of Agriculture press release states that Rollins will advocate for increased American access in new and existing markets, “and make sure trading partners are treating American farmers, ranchers, and producers fairly”.
While a boon for UK manufacturers, slashing US tariffs on exports of cars and metals, the EPD removes UK tariffs on ethanol and introduces a 13,000-tonne tariff-free reciprocal beef quota, “creating a US$5bn opportunity for new exports for US stakeholders, including U.S. farmers, ranchers, and producers”.
The UK’s National Farmers’ Union has already voiced concerns. While praising the access granted to UK beef farmers, president Tom Bradshaw said the union was exploring how the ethanol tariff removal could impact the UK’s arable farmers, given the high domestic demand for biofuels. He added:
“Our biggest concern is that two agricultural sectors have been singled out to shoulder the heavy burden of the removal of tariffs for other industries in the economy.”
In addition to the impact of tariff-free ethanol access, the FT reports uncertainty over whether additional agricultural sectors will be opened to US market access, with the White House having claimed that the UK maintains 125% tariffs on American meat, poultry and dairy.
Trump in the Gulf
Fresh off the success of the US trade delegation to Switzerland this weekend, which saw a significant reduction in US-China tariffs, Trump will be heading to the Persian Gulf this week, seeking greater investment in the US.
Tomorrow (13 May), Trump will visit Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh, meeting with crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. He’ll be joined by senior figures from US firms BlackRock, Citigroup, Google parent company Alphabet and IBM for a Saudi-US investment forum.
Speaking to the BBC, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute Kate Young said that Trump will be keen for an announcement touting an influx of Gulf money into the US:
“He wants to have a big poster in a meeting that describes where these investments might go.
“And some estimation of what they will do to the American economy in terms of job creation or his big push, of course, on domestic manufacturing.”
The FT reports that, ahead of the trip, Saudi Arabia and the UAE pledged a combined US$2trn in US investment over the next 10 years.
Senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, Hasan Alhasan, told CNN that the Gulf states will be aiming to cement security and economic partnerships with the Trump administration, deemed “a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity”, given his focus on commercial benefit rather than diplomatic influence.
In light of increasing tension in the region, as Israel increases its offensive on Gaza and Iran’s nuclear project progresses, experts suggest Trump can achieve his investment goals by remaining neutral.
“Trump can easily score a win by reassuring them of America’s strategic commitment to the region, demonstrating consistent messaging and generally rising above the fray”, said Washington Institute for Near East Policy analysts Elizabeth Dent and Simon Henderson.
OECD export restrictions report
Today the OECD releases its annual report on the export restrictions placed on war materials. Published since 2009, the report records the “incidence, type, scope, and evolution of export restrictions across countries and products”, with the aim of supporting the identification of “less restrictive alternatives that would balance security and development goals”.
This year’s report highlights that export restrictions have increased steeply, with increases in the number of goods affected and the volume of restrictions placed on certain goods.
A publication preview on industrial raw materials writes that the total number of restrictions in place has “increased fivefold” between 2009 and 2023, with a “pronounced acceleration” in 2023, with 500 new products added to the list of those with at least one export restriction.
Some products have been subject to 10% increases in the number of export restrictions placed on them.
EU trade ministers meet
EU trade ministers will be meeting on Thursday (15 May), with US relations high on the agenda.
Last week the European Commission (EC) threatened the US with €95bn worth of counter tariffs on its exports to the bloc, a response to Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs and sector-specific measures on metals and cars.
The bloc is also filing a complaint against those US trade measures with the WTO.
The meeting also comes just days before UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer hosts senior EU officials, including EC commissioner Ursula von der Leyen, for an EU-UK summit (19 May).
Amid tariff turmoil, greater cooperation is sought by both parties, with expectations that a previously mooted youth mobility scheme could be agreed and plans to reduce post-Brexit sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) trade barriers furthered.
Chartered Institute events
Ahead of that summit, the Chartered Institute will be holding a LinkedIn Live event on Wednesday (14 May) to explore what the meeting will cover and the possible outcomes.
Executive editor William Barns-Graham will speak to the organisation’s director of EU and international public affairs Fergus McReynolds and UK Trade Policy Project director David Henig.
That event will be held at 12pm and you can secure your place here.
There’s also a Lunchtime Learning event this week, with members able to learn about food and drink rules of origin from Chartered Institute international trade legislation senior adviser Garima Srivastava.
That session will take place at 12pm on Thursday, and you can sign up here.
Other dates in the diary
Monday – Border security bill back in the Commons
Tuesday – High Court begins four-day hearing on challenge to UK arms sales to Israel
Wednesday – NATO chiefs of defence meet in Brussels
Thursday – UK Q1 GDP
Friday – FAO publishes global report on food crises
Saturday – Iraq hosts Arab League summit
Sunday – Elections in Romania, Portugal and Poland
