Today marks a decade having passed since the UK voted to leave the EU in June 2016.
Global Trade Today here recaps the key milestones and tribulations of the last ten years, from the early talk of a “red, white and blue Brexit”, to the signing of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), to last year’s ‘reset’ summit.
2016: The UK votes to leave but the debate has just begun
After a hotly contested campaign, a 52-48 majority votes in favour of the UK leaving the EU. In the weeks that follow, David Cameron resigns as prime minister and is replaced by Theresa May.
By the end of the year, the nature of the UK’s proposed departure from the bloc remains unclear, with uncertainty over whether May would negotiate for the UK to stay in the EU’s single market or customs union. In response to this speculation, May argues that “Brexit means Brexit” and that she will negotiate for a “red, white and blue Brexit”.
2017: Negotiations begin but May loses authority at election
May sets out her negotiating strategy in January, calling for the UK to leave the single market and take control of its immigration policy. Her government triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in March, creating an exit deadline of 29 March 2019.
Her decision to call a general election in the summer, in order to get a stronger mandate for her strategy, backfires. The Conservatives lose their majority in the Commons. MPs also vote to force the government to give Parliament a final vote on any Brexit deal in December.
2018-19: The ‘Brexit wars’ leads to Boris
Months of negotiations culminate in a first draft agreement with Brussels in November 2018, but despite being approved by European leaders, the deal is rejected three times by British MPs. The EU grants an extension to the Brexit deadline (31 October).
These defeats prove fatal for May’s leadership and she resigns as prime minister after bruising defeats for the Conservatives in that year’s local and European elections – the latter becoming necessary due to the Brexit extension.
Boris Johnson becomes the new Conservative leader and prime minister in July and, following a breakthrough meeting with Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar, a new proposed withdrawal deal is agreed in October. MPs vote to delay giving assent to legislation for the deal, with the EU agreeing to again postpone the deadline.
Johnson triggers a second post-Brexit general election – the first to take place in the winter for decades. His Conservative Party wins an outright majority, giving him a fresh mandate to “get Brexit done”.
2020: The withdrawal, transition period and trade deal negotiations
Johnson’s new cohort of Tory MPs vote through the EU Withdrawal bill at the end of January, enabling the UK to officially leave the bloc on 31 January, including both its single market and customs union. A transition period then begins, running to 31 December that year, during which a new agreement would need to be negotiated to dictate future trading terms between the UK and EU. During this period, the UK continues to trade as though it is still a member of the EU single market and customs union.
These negotiations take place against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, which lead to lockdowns in both the UK and EU at different points during 2020 and 2021. The UK also begins negotiating with non-EU partners for ‘rollover’ deals that secure the same preferential trading terms that the UK had with countries as a previous member of the EU.
Tensions rise in the autumn, as the UK’s Internal Market Bill is alleged by the EU to breach terms of the Withdrawal Agreement, particularly in relation to the Northern Ireland Protocol; the bloc launches legal proceedings. Despite terse relations throughout the talks, the UK and EU agreed to the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on Christmas Eve, and the transition period ends at 23:00 GMT 31 December.
The government also publishes its new UK 2025 Border Strategy in December.
2021-22: The TCA enters force, the NI Protocol causes tensions
Under the TCA, there are zero tariffs or quotas, but new customs rules and processes come into force. The UK, however, delays certain import controls for EU goods entering Britain under its Target Operating Model, with new requirements to be introduced in stages.
Tensions rise in Northern Ireland over the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement’s Northern Ireland Protocol – designed to avoid a need for a hard border on the island of Ireland while maintaining a smooth flow of goods between Great Britain and the nation. This is a factor in riots in Northern Ireland in March and April.
The Democratic Unionist Party in 2022 blocks power-sharing agreements in Stormont over its claims that Brexit has resulted in checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Britain, leading to an impasse that will last for almost two years.
2022: New trade deals, Russia invades Ukraine and more domestic political crisis
The UK signs its first completely new trade deals as an independent nation following Brexit, with agreements secured with Australia and New Zealand.
Russia launches its invasion of Ukraine and Britain imposes a range of trade and financial sanctions against Russia in response. The war escalates already rising inflation.
Following a series of scandals, including ‘Partygate’, Johnson announces he will step down as prime minister and triggers a third post-Brexit leadership contest in the Conservative Party, which will be won by Liz Truss. Truss famously serves for just 49 days following the severe response to her government’s ‘mini budget’ and is succeeded by former chancellor Rishi Sunak.
Queen Elizabeth II also dies in the autumn. The coronation of King Charles III follows in 2023.
2023-2024: CPTPP, Windsor Framework and the end of Conservative rule
Sunak and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen agree the Windsor Framework in February 2023 to more smoothly facilitate goods movements between Britain and Northern Ireland, paving the way for the return of Stormont in February 2024.
The government also updated its plans for introducing remaining import controls on EU goods entering Britain with the new Border Target Operating Model, including a risk-based approach to enforcing certain sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) controls.
The UK lands a major post-Brexit win, securing membership to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – a group of 11 nations in the Pacific including Japan, Mexico and Canada.
However, the economic impact of Brexit, the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis eventually catch up with the Conservative Party, which loses the 2024 general election to Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.
2025-2026: Labour attempts to ‘reset’ the EU relationship losing momentum?
Elected with a manifesto pledge to ‘reset’ relations with the EU, but with red lines around not re-entering the EU single market or customs union, Starmer’s government initiates new talks with Brussels on a range of issues.
This includes a significant leaders’ summit in May 2025, where pledges are made for a new Common SPS Area to reduce checks on agrifood products, a new youth mobility scheme and linkages of energy trading systems.
However, optimism around these negotiations has waned in recent weeks due to disagreements over youth mobility and EU concerns over uncertainty regarding the likely longevity of Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership. Starmer confirmed he will resign as prime minister this summer the day before the Brexit anniversary (22 June).
Despite successfully completing negotiations for post-Brexit trade deals with India and the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as averting the worst of Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff regime, Starmer’s popularity floundered on domestic issues.
A second leaders’ summit had been slated for 22 July, but this will be postponed following Starmer's resignation.
The Chartered Institute, which made a series of recommendations last year on how the UK and EU can most effectively bolster trade and cooperation, will continue to monitor UK-EU relations on behalf of its members.
It is planning to publish a series of analysis features and videos in the run-up to the next leaders’ summit - whenever that eventually happens.
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